Labour can sit pretty ahead of the next election – that is, at least, the prevailing assumption. The Labour-leaning vote that didn’t turn out in July – partly a consequence of disaffection with Starmer, more so a consequence of the assumption that Labour would win easily – is substantial. 1.7 million 2019 Labour voters stayed at home in 2024, and a million drifted to the Lib Dems and the Greens. In a tighter fight with the Conservatives, these no-shows or Lib Dem-flippers could probably be persuaded back to red.
It’s a decent assumption. But it is predicated on the continued appeal of the Labour vote, relative to the continued toxicity of a Tory one. In July Labour won 34% – not typical for election winners. Nevertheless, the landslide was secure. And, the party was the preference of more than six-in-ten voters when put into a hypothetical two horse race with the Conservatives.
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