Labour can sit pretty ahead of the next election – that is, at least, the prevailing assumption. The Labour-leaning vote that didn’t turn out in July – partly a consequence of disaffection with Starmer, more so a consequence of the assumption that Labour would win easily – is substantial. 1.7 million 2019 Labour voters stayed at home in 2024, and a million drifted to the Lib Dems and the Greens. In a tighter fight with the Conservatives, these no-shows or Lib Dem-flippers could probably be persuaded back to red.
It’s a decent assumption. But it is predicated on the continued appeal of the Labour vote, relative to the continued toxicity of a Tory one. In July Labour won 34% – not typical for election winners. Nevertheless, the landslide was secure. And, the party was the preference of more than six-in-ten voters when put into a hypothetical two horse race with the Conservatives.
The relatively narrow appeal of Keir Starmer - as he survives his first month in Downing Street - is a slight point of concern.
Some opinion polls since the general election have attempted to determine the Prime Minister's popularity. Opinium had him at 38% favourability in mid-July, this has now dropped to 35%. YouGov saw his rating fall from 44% in early-July to 37% now. According to WeThink and Ipsos around four-in-ten approve of his premiership's early days. These are net positive numbers, broadly speaking. But they pale compared to previous premiers.
There are a few ways to look at this. Voter cynicism - suspicion of politicians, even - is relatively high. No public figure is immune from this disposition. But that same cynicism was endemic in 2010 in the immediate aftermath of the expenses scandal. But that didn't stop voters giving David Cameron a so-called blank cheque to "do politics differently" with his coalition government.
Another way to look at this is that Starmer's 40% is better than the Labour vote share in July.
But Starmer is appealing to a narrower audience than the anti-Tory coalition he will need to call on come a tighter election. YouGov finds one-in-five of the Labour base are already cheesed off with the landslide-winning premier.
All this could be written up as presently irrelevant, however, because in the game of First Past The Post what matters is not how heavy your vote is, but how far ahead, or not, you are of your nearest opponent. And though Starmer polls fine, his opponents poll terribly. The Conservatives are a long way off appealing to the median voter. And Farage can't quite make more than a loosely held quarter of the electorate to like him.
So far, so okay for the new premier. Up against his opponents, Starmer need not worry. But the future is not sealed.
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