7 August 2024updated 19 Aug 2024 10:55am

How did rioting constituencies vote?

It is wrong to assume the Reform vote maps on easily to rioting constituencies.

It is tempting to draw links between the recent riots and the Reform vote of the July general election. But broad-brush arguments – that all who back Reform a party on the right map neatly onto those engaged in the violent disorder of the past week – are far from understanding the social climate of this nation.

Across the country, enthusiasm to vote in the general election dropped from 2019. Anticipating a guaranteed Labour victory, a disproportionately high number of would-be Labour voters stayed at home. Ditto, an unenthused Conservative base who perhaps believed their vote would make little difference. Nationally turnout fell by about seven points. But in and around areas of violent disorder, turnout fell by nine points.

So far there has been disorder in about four in ten seats where Reform came second in July – that’s 38 of them. In these same areas, the Reform vote averaged 19 percent, compared to the 14 per cent they received nationally. In places where there were riots, there were more Reform voters than on average. But it is overly simplistic to lodge this, then, as a representation of the Reform vote (not least owing to the fall in turnout being higher in many of these areas).

There is not much sympathy for the rioters among Reform voters – or any voters for that matter. There is some but it is minor. For the peaceful protest that came before the violent unrest (however short lived and hard to define it may have been) the vast majority of Britons did have sympathy. But those who caused unrest have earned sympathy from less than one in ten. Though, of that number one quarter are Reform voters.

So, one-in-three supported the protests before they transfigured into unrest. Seven percent support the unrest.

This is an important distinction. Those so-called "genuine concerns" (derided by plenty on social media) have a public hearing. The riots and violence generate next to no pity or sympathy. But some of the root causes do. Tarring all those anxious about immigration as rioter-adjacent is obviously ludicrous. And, it risks pushing those who agitate for tougher control into the extremes.

Nevertheless, the government's response to the riots should be absolute and unflinching. Six-in-ten tell YouGov they believe the rioters are racist. More than half say they're far-right. A quarter goes as far as calling them terrorists.

Immigration-sceptical sentiment is sizeable in this country. Though - perhaps counterintuitively - this is nothing compared to its height ten years ago. But the median Briton still prefers tougher border control to looser, and tougher language to softer.