This has been a good few weeks for the prime minister and his party: they have done little to offend, not much to divide. Actually, they’ve done very little altogether. But in that time – a breather from the news – public opinion has settled into the reality of a Labour government. And early impressions – though slightly vacuous – bode well.
The last two years have seen public confidence in politicians – already low – slip once more to levels akin to the nadir of the expenses scandal in 2008/9. The Year of the Three Premiers soured the already low numbers. But now expectations that Labour will do better on the economy than the Conservatives are widespread (though expectations that Labour will “fix” the economy – fix meaning different things to different people – are low).
As of late July, three-in-ten expect their household finances to get worse in the next year. But more expect little to no change. And just 16% suspect an improvement on the horizon. These figures aren’t far off what people were expecting prior to Labour’s landslide win.
Labour's overture - dramatising public finances as in a state "worse than expected" - might work. 41% of us, according to More In Common, were expecting that. Only 37% of people are of the view that what we knew prior to the election was an accurate record. Psyching things up as worse than expected has mileage because there is a (broadly) sympathetic crowd ready to hear it.
The time is now for Labour. Between the financial crisis and the ill-fated premiership of Liz Truss Labour never managed to eke out a convincing lead on the economy. Now, according to one post-election poll they have an 18 point lead over the Conservatives. Labour has space to craft a narrative, redefine what the economy means to voters and run it according to their rules. But the party needs to capitalise on this now, not in a year's time.
Labour's programme - or rather, its natural instincts - will lead it to raising capital to fund new projects. That may come through tax hikes or borrowing - but, at the behest of Conservative campaigning voters have come to regard borrowing among the seven deadly sins of economic management. Tax rises, meanwhile, seem inevitable.
Voters are preoccupied with cost of living. Relief in this area could come via wage increases, price decreases or indeed tax decreases. But voters expect tax rises. When voters are asked if they would support X if it meant taxes going up by Y they are broadly sympathetic. This isn't a blank check but, combined with the messaging on public finances, Labour might be able to spin a narrative that voters are receptive to.
For now, the public is broadly satisfied. Starmer is in his honeymoon phase. But the party should capitalise on this favourable weather now.
[See also: The Democrats can learn from Labour on fighting populism]
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