Who can beat the Conservatives in Mid Bedfordshire? The last time it voted anything other than Conservative was 1929. Activists from Labour and the Lib Dems have been sparring on social media about who is best-placed to replace Nadine Dorries as the member of parliament. Labour’s mess-up in Uxbridge, say some Lib Dems, means it has no right to contest anything with confidence. Labour, meanwhile, is using national polling as the justification for giving this seat the party’s best shot.
We have one poll, by Opinium, now two months out of date. It shows Labour ahead on 28 per cent to 24 per cent for the Conservatives. But the winning share is so low you couldn’t really make a prediction with confidence. The last time a party won a parliamentary by-election with a vote as low as that was… never, actually.
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