You can see it now: the plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda is ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, prompting the Conservatives to pledge to withdraw the UK from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) after the next election. It’ll be the issue that wins over disaffected Leavers and defies forecasts of a Labour victory. It will be Brexit 2.0: the empire strikes back.
This might sound plausible (even to opponents of the Rwanda plan) but there’s a hitch: it’s a strategy divorced from the median voter. In 2016, immigration led polls as the defining issue for most people and, consequently, Leave won the referendum. In 2019, Brexit was the priority as voters craved an end to the interminable saga of leaving the EU. As a result, Labour was cast aside as it tried – and failed – to change the subject.
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