Labour is heading for disaster in Wales
After the next Senedd election, the right could form a government.
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Polling
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Polling
Labour is losing big in the council by-election sweepstakes
The electorate is more fluid than ever. How worried should the government be?
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Are partisan pollsters calling the election wrong?
I have updated my model to exclude polls connected with a party.
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Trump or Harris, who will win? The New Statesman’s US election forecast
Our model predicts a very close contest.
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How Kamala Harris wins in Pennsylvania
One poll has Democrats out-performing expectations with white voters in the Rust Belt.
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The US election looks narrower than ever
More than 50 million early votes have been cast. What can we learn from them?
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Are the polls underestimating Trump?
What we can learn from analysing a candidate’s campaign trail.
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Kamala Harris’s man problem
A two-pronged strategy could help her campaign break the gender divide.
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