What to make of a new Survation poll that shows that the Conservatives are on course for victory in the Hartlepool by-election?
Survation’s headline result is close to what would be the worst possible scenario for Labour in general – the party increasing its share of the vote from the 2019 general election, but losing the seat due to the Conservatives gaining votes from the Brexit Party – because it suggests that Labour will have to do significantly better in terms of winning votes than it did in 2019, simply to do as poorly as it did at gaining seats in 2019.
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