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21 August 2019updated 07 Jun 2021 5:04pm

Will the next general election be 2017 all over again?

By Stephen Bush

Labour’s position in the opinion polls is, by any definition, appalling. Regardless of the pollster it is consistently second, with the only question a matter of degree. More importantly, given that leadership ratings have tended to be a better predictor of electoral outcomes in British politics than headline voting intention, Jeremy Corbyn trails Boris Johnson by double-digit margins on the question of who people prefer as prime minister.

The party’s performance in local elections and parliamentary by-elections – again, a more consistently reliable predictor of general election performance than voting intention – is again, dire.

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