Theresa May has emerged from the events of the last week appearing more secure than she has for months. The passage of the Brady amendment – with the support of 14 Labour MPs – suggests that if May can secure “alternative arrangements” to the Irish backstop, her Brexit deal might just pass the House of Commons next month.
Two obstacles currently stand in her way. First, she needs to agree what such alternative arrangements would be with the European Union. The European Commission has expressed its unwillingness to reopen the withdrawal agreement negotiated last year, but the balance of power is held by the European Council – comprised of the leaders of the EU’s member states. If they can be convinced to support an alternative to the backstop (Ireland and others are insistent that they will not), then May might prevail.
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