I was just about learning to walk the last time the Conservatives were evicted from office. And while I don’t have any political memory of that time, I can only imagine the then opposition, smarting from a historic defeat, was approaching its newfound position in a more dignified and collegiate way than its equivalent today.
The Conservatives’ response to the riots has been bizarre. Shadow cabinet members and Conservative police and crime commissioners seeking to make political capital from the events – which the overwhelming majority of Brits are united in condemning – is a prepubescent approach to opposition politics. It speaks to a very core, very partisan, very logged-on base, who see little but the rosette on the jacket. Is this what Tory members want? I’m not so sure.
In fact, I don’t think Tory members themselves know what they want. Perhaps conscious they are just under three months away from entrusting someone with taking them fully or partially back to high office, it appears they’re increasingly of two minds. Traditionally the Tory grassroots are more socially conservative and “right wing” than the parliamentary party. After their landslide defeat, with a mere 121 MPs remaining, it’s less certain that is still the case.
The six contenders to the throne have limited public appeal, but among Tory members it’s Kemi Badenoch to beat. She stands at 28 per cent among members, putting her far ahead of the second-placed Robert Jenrick on 16 per cent.
But the true state of the race remains far from clear. And in the final run-off, Badenoch can’t be sure of prevailing. Polling by Techne for the College Green Group found that Badenoch, Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat all enjoy majority approval and support among members. Jenrick has 55 per cent of members listing him as among their top four, Tugendhat has 52 per cent and Badenoch has 52 per cent (with Patel just behind on 47 per cent). These figures illustrate, perhaps, their ceilings of support, meaning that this race is truly anyone’s.
What’s motivating the Tory membership? Rather than a poll of leadership contenders, the answer might come from a ConservativeHome survey of members on the shadow cabinet.
It was the shadow Welsh secretary Byron Davies who appeared to suggest that Labour’s opposition to the Rwanda scheme meant the riots were politically justified. He has since apologised for those remarks, but it is notable that in the ConHome survey he has a net approval rating of -3, lower than the vast majority of his shadow cabinet colleagues and just one point above Rishi Sunak’s own derisory rating.
It contrasts with Badenoch’s approval rating of +45 and James Cleverly’s, at +26. But it also contrasts with Jeremy Hunt’s score of +27. As Henry Hill points out in his write-up, the shadow chancellor’s popularity may simply be a consequence of the heightened coverage he received while taking Rachel Reeves to task.
But it could speak to something beyond that. Tory members want to see competence. They don’t want to see noise over the riots. They don’t want to see party politicking (Cleverly accused Keir Starmer of sending “completely the wrong message” by “taking the knee”). It appears, perhaps, they want someone to rise above that.
The transformation in Hunt’s ratings from the net negatives he attracted before the election represents a clear change of perspective from Tory members. After defeat, it appears, they want someone who can steady the party. Party political outbursts will not steady the Conservatives. But that doesn’t mean they don’t want to be self-indulgent – and choose candidates that reflect their own values and cultural politics.
Whoever can satisfy those desires, while appearing competent and capable, will likely seize the Tory crown. Badenoch does better than all the others in a first-past-the-post free-for-all. But when it comes to a head-to-head contest, it’s really anyone’s to win.
[See also: England in pieces]
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