Monday was an interesting day for the right in British politics. While Nigel Farage was holding a press conference in Westminster to announce the defection of 29 councillors to Reform, Conservatives were gathering at the Guildhall for the Remaking Conservativism conference, hosted by the Centre for Policy Studies. A broad range of speakers were happy to opine on the challenges facing the Conservative Party today, from the co-author of the 2019 Tory manifesto Rachel Wolf to the economic historian and fan of Javier Milei Niall Ferguson, and – for ten minutes right at the end, briefly disrupted by two protesters – the Conservative leader herself.
Kemi Badenoch didn’t say all that much in her speech, beyond rehashing her upbringing in Nigeria and appreciation of Margaret Thatcher. No doubt she was saving her best lines for today, when she will launch the start of her party’s policy development process – beginning by taking aim at net zero (or, at least, trying to achieve it by 2050).
Net zero came up quite a few times during the Remaking Conservatism conference. In fact, the landmark climate target signed into law by Theresa May and championed by Conservatives including Badenoch only a few years ago was demonised far more than the mini budget debacle overseen by Liz Truss, which was barely mentioned. (Try asking voters on the doorstep which had a greater impact on their decision to abandon the Conservatives at the last election and see what they think of that one.) Other themes under discussion will be familiar to those who have been following along as the Tories have moved from the denial stage of grief into the realms of bargaining, outrage and depression. High taxes, low growth, the cost of energy, the unworkability of the planning system, the “failure” of mass immigration and bloated size of the state at the time Rishi Sunak left office were all flagged as culprits.
In terms of the fevered speculation that some in the Tory party are growing so impatient with their leader they might try to oust her as early as this year, the mood towards Badenoch can best be described as tepid. There was no active hostility towards her – just lots of refusal to say whether she would necessarily be in post at the next election, and advice for what she could and should be doing right now. Again, the advice was familiar, namely: return to core Conservative principles like free enterprise and the family, and when in doubt learn from Margaret Thatcher.
But one speaker had a question that is rarely heard in Tory circles these days: “What’s your Liberal Democrat strategy?” We hear a lot about how the Conservative party needs a strategy to neutralise the threat of Nigel Farage and unite the right. What about Ed Davey, and the 60-odd Tory seats that went yellow-orange in July?
The speaker happened to be the only panellist with direct experience taking a party from opposition to government. It was George Osborne – whose main piece of advice for the Tories was to worry less about what the hot-button political issues are today and think ahead to what they will be in four years’ time. (He was also one of the few speakers to mention the NHS and the need for Conservatives to tackle the perception that it cannot be trusted with the beloved health service if it is ever to be in power again. Another sentiment a quick doorstep survey would suggest the party might want to focus a bit more on.)
Osborne’s Lib Dem point was quickly skirted over as the conversation moved back to Thatcher. But it’s worth thinking about. The former chancellor pointed out that, in the run-up to the 2010 election, David Cameron had a clear strategy to try to win seats – or at the very least, voters – from the Lib Dems. In the end, he admitted, it didn’t work (the Conservatives won only a handful of Lib Dem seats in 2010). But the groundwork in understanding Lib Dem priorities, particularly regarding the environment, meant that when the election resulted in a hung parliament, Cameron was in a strong position to negotiate with Nick Clegg about a coalition.
It was, Osborne argued, about “optionality”. At the next election, Keir Starmer will have two routes back into power: another majority government, or a deal with Ed Davey, given the areas on which Labour and Lib Dem values align. Unless something very radical changes, Badenoch (or whoever leading the Tories at that stage) will have to win a majority outright – a challenge made more difficult by the fixation (so far) with Reform, at the expense of paying any attention at all to the Lib Dems. Or else she’ll have to do a deal with a man whose stated aim is to destroy the party she leads.
Davey, it’s true, is not hosting press conferences to unveil Tory defectors like Farage is doing (although one of the newly-minted Reform councillors on stage yesterday had been a Lib Dem – make of that trajectory what you will). But week after week at PMQs, the Lib Dem leader calmly and respectfully makes his presence felt. On subjects ranging from disability benefits to the national insurance rise impact on carers to the government’s reluctance to stand up to Donald Trump, Davey has made the Prime Minister look seriously uncomfortable in a way Badenoch rarely manages, always maintaining a sense of grown-up gravitas.
Today, Badenoch launches what she called “the biggest policy renewal programme in 50 years”, firing the starting gun for the Tory party to figure out what it stands for. She is choosing to kick it off by calling net zero a “fantasy” that “can’t be achieved without a serious drop in our living standards or by bankrupting us”. One can only wonder what voters in Lib Dem seats think of that.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[See also: Why Britain isn’t working]
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