The biggest moment of Keir Starmer’s tenure so far took place this afternoon. In an unexpected statement in the House of Commons, the Prime Minister announced the government’s intention to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027, up from 2.3 per cent, the “biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War.” Under these new plans, the UK will need to find an additional £13.4bn annually for defence in less than two years.
Interesting timing. On Thursday, Starmer travels to Washington for his first meeting with Donald Trump since the inauguration. The White House has made it clear it does not intend to maintain current levels of US involvement in European security. Earlier this month, Pete Hegseth, Trump’s new defence secretary, warned that European members of NATO couldn’t rely on US pockets. Trump’s apparent willingness to end the war by cosying up to Russia and excluding Ukraine from negotiations over a peace deal also signals the changing nature of US involvement.
Starmer’s announcement suggests he has listened to the reported advice of Peter Mandelson, the newly minted US ambassador, who has recommended the UK goes further and faster in its defence spending commitments. Perhaps Starmer is keen to reassure Trump that the UK is able to galvanise the rest of Europe. The announcement also included a commitment to increase spending to 3 per cent of GDP in the next parliament.
Some in the defence sector have urged him to go further. During the Cold War, the UK spent around 5 per cent of GDP on defence in order to maintain a range of military capabilities to deter Russia. Some are sceptical that half of that will be sufficient to deter Russia alone. In the absence of an abundant increase, spending will need to remain efficient; a quality the Ministry of Defence is not necessarily known for maintaining. (For example, for two years in a row, the MoD has failed to produce a costed equipment programme for which it has received sharp criticism from the Public Accounts Committee.) Starmer hinted that this is already part of the government’s thinking; he told MPs the government will look to “modernise and reform our capabilities as we invest.”
Starmer confirmed the UK will fund the increase by cutting its development aid spending from 0.5 per cent to 0.3 per cent in 2027. The government hopes to rely on money which was redirected to the Home Office to cover the backlog of asylum seekers being housed in hotels. Banking on this money is betting on the untested assumption that this backlog will be quickly cleared and the money returned. Yet the number of asylum seekers housed in hotels has been steadily rising, clearing this backlog is likely to prove difficult.
But the Prime Minister now goes into his meeting with Trump on a firmer footing, having promised to strengthen the UK’s commitment to European defence. And, this announcement also signals an opportunity at home. With more money on the table, Labour has a chance to clearly define the UK’s role in this turbulent, new international order.
[See more: Donald Trump’s useful fools have betrayed Ukraine]
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