Back in February, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar told the New Statesman: “I am really open with Keir and the UK shadow cabinet that I want to and need to be going into a 2026 election in the midterm of a popular Labour government, not an unpopular one.”
That’s a warning worth recalling now because Starmer’s government is – by any measure – unpopular. Just 18 per cent of voters, according to polling by YouGov, approve of Labour’s record to date, while 59 per cent disapprove. It took Tony Blair more than three years to lose his poll lead – during the 2000 fuel protests – but Starmer’s party has already trailed the Conservatives.
In Scotland, the picture is still more troubling. Labour, which led the SNP in advance of the general election, has fallen behind its rival in Holyrood opinion polls. As our Scotland editor Chris Deerin has reported, Rachel Reeves’s decision to means-test winter fuel payments is viewed as central to Scottish Labour’s woes.
Last month, in a notable act of differentiation, Sarwar announced that his party would restore the universal benefit (which would be tapered for wealthier households). “I think people will see that we have listened and we’re delivering what’s right for Scotland,” he said in an implicit rebuke to Westminster. But little more than a week later, the SNP – which had previously insisted that it could not afford to reinstate universal payments – announced that it would do just that (aided, ironically, by a record £3.4bn for Scotland in Reeves’s Budget). It’s almost as if there’s an election on.
In a country notably colder than England, the winter fuel cuts were always likely to prove a political gift for the SNP. They have allowed the party to revive its favoured Scotland vs Westminster dynamic and to reaffirm its support for universalism (no tuition fees, no prescriptions, free personal care). Could the SNP thwart Scottish Labour’s revival and win a fifth term? That’s far likelier than it appeared back in July – when the nationalists were left with a mere nine MPs (down from 48).
But it isn’t only Scotland where Labour faces an electoral headache. A remarkable Welsh YouGov published yesterday – ahead of the 2026 Senedd election – put Plaid Cymru in first place (on 24 per cent) with Labour tied with Reform in second on 23 per cent.
As in Scotland, there’s an unhappy Westminster connection. When Starmer recently addressed the Welsh Labour conference, he was met by dozens of tractors as farmers protested against inheritance tax changes (farmers have since blockaded Holyhead Port). In a heavily rural country – around 88 per cent of Welsh land is agricultural (compared to approximately 69 per cent in England) – the measure has emboldened Labour’s opponents.
Welsh Labour is the democratic world’s most successful political party – it has won the most seats and most votes at every Welsh general election for 102 years and has led the Senedd ever since its creation in 1999. But the country has long had insurgent potential. Welsh nationalism has grown in recent times – with support for independence peaking at 46 per cent in 2021 – and the country voted for Brexit in 2016 (a fact often forgotten in Westminster commentary). Its post-industrial character and tribal anti-Toryism – look up the Tonypandy riots – make it promising territory for Reform.
Starmer has no intention of changing Westminster policy to suit devolved needs. Indeed, he prides himself on taking the “difficult decisions” that his predecessors ducked. But unless reversed, his government’s unpopularity will be a problem for Labour in 2026.
There is a history of midterm revolts against the party: recall Ken Livingstone’s election as an independent in the 2000 London mayoral contest or the SNP’s first victory in 2007. The risk for Starmer – in a volatile electoral landscape – is that more such shocks follow.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here.
[See also: Inside Keir Starmer’s reset]
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