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13 August 2021updated 04 Sep 2021 12:10pm

Germany’s CDU/CSU alliance is on course for its worst election result in postwar history

The CDU candidate Armin Laschet has alienated German voters – but his opponents have failed to win them over.

By Ben Walker

There are six weeks to go until the federal German elections on Sunday 26 September, and Armin Laschet – Angela Merkel’s successor as party-leader – is in trouble.

Laschet, the CDU’s candidate who was chosen to replace the chancellor of 16 years, has not only taken a personal hit in the polls, but so has his party.

Armin Laschet sends the CDU/CSU into freefall
New Statesman tracker of the latest polls
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Who do Germans want to be their next chancellor?
Public preference for chancellor when given the options of Armin Laschet (CDU/CSU), Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Annalena Baerbock (Green).
Source: New Statesman tracker of the latest polls
Olaf Scholz is the only candidate of the three main chancellor candidates to have net public approval
Net approval of German politicians, ZDF polling

It is unclear whether it will stay that way. The CDU/CSU are not losing voters to its opponents. Rather, their base is unenthused and unwilling to commit. CDU canvassers could, therefore, find their “get out to vote” operation an easier task than were it an issue of winning back defectors.

In a previous piece, I wrote that it was “all to play for” in Germany. While the Green party’s Annalena Baerbock seems less relevant to the debate on who will be next chancellor than a few weeks ago, she and her party may yet fill the part of kingmaker in Germany’s next government. But with six weeks to go, the race is still open.

[Listen to: Why European social democracy is in crisis]

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