How Labour could lose the next election over the next 10 weeks

LANCASTER, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 15: Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and Shadow Secretary of State for BEIS Rebecca Long-Bailey address the audience at the University of Lancaster on November 15, 2019 in Lancaster, England. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has announced a major new digital infrastructure policy including free broadband for all. (Photo by Anthony Devlin/Getty Images)

Elections are not about how many votes you win. They are about how many more votes you win. At the general election, the Conservatives under Boris Johnson won only marginally more votes than under Theresa May in 2017 (an increase of 1.3 per cent). But Labour’s vote collapsed, plummeting from 40.0 to 32.1 per cent. In 2017, Jeremy Corbyn’s strength deprived May of a parliamentary majority. In 2019, his weakness handed Johnson the first comfortable Tory majority in 32 years.

This is why the decisions made by Labour over the next 10 weeks are vital. The next election will not be a referendum on Johnson. It will be a choice between Johnson and Labour’s leader. In the next five years, Johnson may be seen as ineffective, untrustworthy and scandal-ridden. But he will be re-elected if Labour’s leader is less appealing.