Tactical voting is, as in most general elections, going to be a major subplot of this contest. We know that, if the polls are broadly right – and given that the local election results and the Brecon by-election were both about what we’d expect if they are, that seems a safeish hunch – that essentially, a quarter of the country is voting Labour, a little less than that is voting Liberal Democrat, and neither of those two groups wants Boris Johnson to win the election.
We know, too, that while there is a group of Labour voters who will never vote Liberal Democrat and a group of Liberal Democrat voters who will never vote Labour, much of the two parties’ voters are happy to flit between the two. Broadly their views are the same – on everything from preferred prime minister choice to Brexit end state – and they may therefore vote tactically to stop the Conservatives.
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