Since Carwyn Jones announced that he would stand down as Welsh Labour leader and First Minister before the end of the year, only one person has declared their candidacy for the race to succeed – Jones’ Welsh cabinet colleague, Mark Drakeford. While others have indicated that they are considering standing, or might stand, everything suggests that Drakeford will start the race as strong favourite.
But there are two good reasons to be cautious about assuming that we already know the identity of the next first minister of Wales. The first is simply the length of the envisaged contest. A lot can go wrong in seven months – and particularly if you are the front runner, whose every action will be scrutinised closely, and every slight mistake seized upon by critics and opponents.
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