At the close of 2016, the European Union was haunted by the spectre of permanent decline. For the first time in its history, a member state had voted to leave. The Brexiteers hoped – and Europhiles feared – that Britain’s departure would trigger a chain reaction. The United States, meanwhile, once a champion of European integration, had elected Donald Trump as president, a man who openly wished for the break-up of the EU. As Europe confronted these new threats, its own long-standing problems – the eurozone crisis, the refugee crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict – remained unresolved.
The paradox, as the political scientist Ivan Krastev writes in his essay on page 24, is that although these troubles have endured, the EU is now defined by a new mood of optimism. In part, this reflects a genuine shift in economic performance.
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