Labour is further from regaining political power than it thinks. The 8 June pattern of electoral support highlights four major weaknesses for the party – the loss of white working class votes; a weak performance in English towns, a dependence on Remain voters and an over-reliance on young voters. The party leadership seems complacent in the face of the uphill task that we face to regain power. A “one more heave” approach relying on turning out the same voters who supported Labour on 8 June, plus a few more, is a high risk strategy. The Conservative are likely to have a new leader in place by the next general election and will not fight such an inept campaign. Labour and Corbyn will face massive scrutiny, which they avoided last time.
The Conservatives achieved a partial realignment of working class voters. The Tories had a 22 percent lead over labour amongst voters with no educational qualifications. In many seats with white working class electorates and few ethnic minorities, like Southampton Itchen, Labour failed to regain seats from the Conservatives. In this respect Labour is experiencing similar challenges to other social democratic parties in Europe. In a series of seats being defended against Labour, the Conservatives saw significant increases in their vote, in two cases (Bolton West and Morley and Outwood) in seats that were held by Gordon Brown in 2010.
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