Underneath the high drama of Shadow Cabinet resignations, Article 50 and the proposed DonaldTrump state visit, Labour’s future will be determined by a far more mundane fixture. Oppositions do not lose seats in by-elections to a governing party – at least not since 1982 in Mitcham and Morden, when the Conservatives won at the height of the Labour/Social Democratic Party split. In a week’s time Copeland and Stoke will go to the polls, and there is a reasonable chance that Labour could lose both – with UKIP and the Tories effectively in alliance.
You can tell the importance of these by-elections by the effort that is being thrown at them. Anecdotally, a large number of left-wing activists in London have headed north. Momentum has mobilised, and even set up an interactive carpool website to boost attendance. The left’s activists are right to throw everything they have at the contests. But we must at least contemplate the possibility of losing and what that could mean – for Labour’s prospects and for the Corbyn project. The Labour right certainly are.
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