The Labour leadership contest has more than six weeks to run. But the view of most is that it’s over already. Betfair punters give Owen Smith just a 12 per cent chance of beating Jeremy Corbyn. Most pundits take a similar view.
In my column this week, I write that Corbyn is almost certain to win. He has garnered 187 constituency party nominations (a reliable indicator in 2015) to Smith’s 27. But the latter’s team argue that they have cause for hope. Private polling, a source told me, shows Corbyn below 50 per cent for the first time (having lost six points in the last few weeks) with a significant number undecided. Such reports should always be treated with caution. Andy Burnham’s team claimed private polling showed him four points behind Corbyn last August (compared to YouGov’s 32). Corbyn finished 41 points ahead.
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