In his response to David Cameron’s EU statement, Jeremy Corbyn derided the Prime Minister for “failing to appease” half of his MPs over the EU referendum. But as I note in my column this week, for the Labour leader to achieve this degree of discipline would be an achievement. More than half of his MPs reject his opposition to Trident renewal and most want him replaced before the next general election.
The fraught nuclear question has returned after Corbyn’s office confirmed that he would attend this Saturday’s CND rally (while other MPs join the pro-EU campaign day). In a pre-emptive strike, Tom Watson used his speech at yesterday’s EEF conference to reveal that he had personally pledged his support for Trident to David Cameron and to state: “My party’s policy favours a continuous-at-sea nuclear deterrent”. The latter point is rejected by the Labour leader’s team who say that the party has no official stance while its defence review is ongoing.
MPs regard Corbyn’s decision to attend the anti-nuclear protest as an error both of principle and tactics. At the moment when the Conservatives are more divided than at any time since the Corn Laws, he has chosen to raise the salience of his most polarising stance. Corbyn’s allies retort that he has an unambiguous mandate to oppose Trident having been elected on this platform.
In his speech, Watson called on the government to hold the Commons vote on renewal before the EU referendum to give “greater certainty” to “industry, our allies and our enemies that British industry will deliver the Trident project in good time”. But there is no prospect of Cameron complying. No.10 regards the chance to divide Labour over Trident as a crucial part of its post-referendum armoury. By putting the issue before the Commons, it will help turn attention away from the Tories’ divisions and back to Labour’s. Corbyn, who has privately assured shadow cabinet members that they will be given a free vote, will oppose renewal, while as few as five others (Diane Abbott, Nia Griffith, John McDonnell, Ian Murray and Jon Trickett) support it.
There is no legal need for the government to hold a Trident vote but the political benefits are irresistible. Emily Thornberry, the shadow defence secretary, has suggested that Labour could abstain in protest at the Tories’ “games”. But a shadow cabinet minister told me that it would be “madness” for the party to appear indifferent on a question of national security. Though the fallout from the Tories’ EU schism remains unpredictable, it is Labour’s divisions that are likely to once more dominate by the autumn.
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