It’s election season in a country with historic ties to Britain. No, not America. Another country much closer: the Republic of Ireland. And the election there is much sooner than November. In fact, the election is today. Well done if you noticed.
We should probably pay a bit more attention. Ireland is our fifth largest exports market, and imports more from the UK than any other country. The current Taoiseach (Prime Minister), Enda Kenny, is one of David Cameron’s few allies in the EU. And a strong relationship between the two governments is crucial to the maintenance of the Northern Irish peace process.
So, here’s a brief rundown of what’s at stake today. Kenny’s Fine Gael party has governed in coalition with Labour since the last general election, in 2011. In that election, Fianna Fáil, who had led the government since 1997, paid for the country’s brutal financial crisis with over half of its seats, in the process becoming Ireland’s third party. Sinn Fein, led by Gerry Adams of IRA and Twitter fame, came fourth.
This time, however, it is the Labour Party who are expected to be punished. In a situation that is more than slightly reminiscent of the Liberal Democrats’ fate in the UK last May, Labour is being criticised for abetting Fine Gael’s austerity policies. Ireland was rescued from bankruptcy by the Troika of the IMF, European Commission and European Central Bank in 2010, and became the first Eurozone country to exit the rescue programme in late 2013. The government has pursued a relentless programme of spending cuts, tax rises and wage freezes, but is criticised from the left for a recovery that is only felt at the top.
Fine Gael is expected to win the most seats again, but the key question is whether Labour lose so many seats that the two parties are unable to form a majority coalition. If so, Fine Gael could go into coalition with Fianna Fáil, who may make modest gains. But the two parties are old rivals and both are adamant that they would never consider such a deal. What is peculiar about their animosity is that there is no great ideological differences between the two parties. Both are on the centre-right, though Fine Gael is increasingly more socially liberal and Fianna Fáil is generally more populist. Really, their division is a legacy of more violent times. Fine Gael was formed by followers of Michael Collins, who was assassinated by republican hardliners for supporting the 1921 Anglo-Irish treaty, while Fianna Fáil was the party of Collins’ rival, Éamon de Valera.
With a deal between the two historic rivals apparently out of question – and their combined vote share at its lowest ever – some are wondering whether Sinn Fein could come into the governing mix, although Fine Gael has ruled out a coalition with the party. Indeed, in a debate earlier this week, Gerry Adams was questioned over his suitability for ministerial office, given his IRA past. He responded: “I have never tried to hide my association with the IRA . . . The IRA is now history. It’s now gone. We’re living in a new era.”
Sinn Fein is expected to gain on its current seat tally of 14, making it the country’s foremost anti-austerity party.
It’s more likely that Fine Gael and Labour will try to scrabble towards a majority in the 157-seat Dáil by getting independents into their tent. Shane Ross, a newspaper columnist first elected in 2011, says he and his alliance of five other independents would support any coalition that will instigate major political reform – a big issue in Ireland where Bertie Ahern, Taoiseach between 1997 and 2008, resigned after a corruption scandal, as did Charles Haughey, who was Taoiseach in three separate spells between 1979 and 1992.
Polls close at 10pm tonight and counting will take place the weekend, before coalition bargaining begins in earnest. What happens is actually fairly important. Grimly fascinating though the US presidential election may be, the quadrennial contest across the pond receives far more coverage than any other foreign election even when the candidates are dull. The US is clearly a more influential country than Ireland, but we ought to watch the politics of our nearest neighbours more closely.
Content from our partners
Related
