“So this is the moment they said would never happen.” The fact that Marco Rubio used virtually the same words to describe his third place finish in Iowa as Barack Obama did to celebrate victory there eight years ago says a lot about how low his sights were set going into last night’s caucuses.
Third place isn’t much to brag about, but Rubio does have reason for cheer. He outperformed the polls more than any other candidate, something that can produce a bigger boost going into New Hampshire than outright vote share. His did better than eventual nominee John McCain in 2008, and beat the other “establishment” candidates soundly, with 23.1 per cent to Bush’s 2.8 per cent, Kasich’s 1.9 per cent and Christie’s 1.8 per cent. Beating them again in New Hampshire new week – as he now looks likely to do – would set him up as the clear choice for party elites looking to stop Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. He’s also snagged the endorsement of South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, whose state is the next to vote after New Hampshire, putting him neck-and-neck with Bush at the front of the race for endorsements. All of which helps explain why his chances of winning the nomination according to the betting markets have improved from 32 per cent to 54 per cent.
On the other hand, Rubio failed in his efforts to bring down Cruz. He and his “Conservative Solutions” PACs spent $11.8 million on TV ads in Iowa (twice as much as Cruz and his PACs), and trained their firepower on Cruz rather than Trump, attacking his tax plan and his “political calculation”. It seems he wanted to prevent Cruz from winning Iowa, perhaps fancying his chances more in a two-way fight with Donald Trump than the three-way contest that is shaping up now.
So can Ted Cruz do what Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum couldn’t, and transform victory in Iowa into the Republican nomination? There are reasons to be sceptical. Cruz won Iowa thanks to his strong support among the 40 per cent of caucus-goers who were very conservative and the 64 per cent who were born-again or evangelical Christians, and few states have as favourable demographics for him as Iowa. (None has a more conservative Republican primary electorate and only a handful have a greater proportion of evangelicals.) Even with a boost from Iowa, he’ll struggle to win New Hampshire, where just 21 per cent of voters in the 2012 Republican primary were very conservative and 22 per cent were evangelical. The main obstacle for Cruz, though, is the intense hostility he faces from the Republican party elites, as demonstrated by the attacks lobbed his way in recent weeks by former Senator Bob Dole, Iowa Governor Terry Branstad and new Republican PAC “Americans United for Values”.
Still, Cruz has a better chance of the nomination than Huckabee or Santorum did after their Iowa victories. He raised more money in October to December than any Republican but Ben Carson, his campaign has more cash-on-hand than any other Republican’s, and the “Keep the Promise” PACs supporting him have more than any except the Bush-supporting “Right to Rise”. He should be able to build on his Iowa win in South Carolina (where 65 per cent of 2012 primary voters were evangelical), Nevada (where 49 per cent of 2012 caucus-goers were very conservative) and the seven southern states – including his home state of Texas – that vote on Super Tuesday (March 1st). Strong showings in these states could give him an early lead in the delegate count, especially if he’s able to break 50 per cent in Texas and secure all of the state’s 44 at-large delegates and a big chunk of its 108 district delegates (a YouGov poll in January put him on 45 per cent). But after Super Tuesday Cruz will find himself in rougher terrain, particularly the delegate-rich winner-take-all states of Florida, Illinois and Ohio that vote on March 15th. If he fails to win any of these, his path to securing the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination would be very steep indeed.
So last night’s results in Iowa were good news for Rubio and Cruz, and bad news for everyone else. Of course, it’s natural to want to bask in the schadenfreude of Donald Trump becoming that which he most despises: a loser. (“Dead clown walking”, mocks the New York Daily News.) But it’s worth remembering that Trump’s poor performance in Iowa has boosted two of the most right-wing candidates in the race.
Ted Cruz has the most conservative voting record in Congress. Marco Rubio’s views on abortion, guns and much else put him far to the right of all the Bushes, John McCain, Mitt Romney and even Ronald Reagan. Both want to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Both have promised to overturn President Obama’s gun control measures. Both deny climate change is man-made. Both oppose allowing abortions in cases of rape or incest. Either of them would be the most conservative nominee since Barry Goldwater lost 61 per cent–38 per cent to Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
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