OK. I know what the institutions are, get the whole free trade bloc thing, and I totally appreciate maternity leave. How much does this actually cost? The EU budget is the one subject guaranteed to leave even the most hardened Brussels correspondent cry-laughing hysterically while downing La Chouffe in the Hairy Canary* at 2am.
Back of an envelope? If you want a lot of figures from a wide range of sources, Europe: In or Out? Everything you need to know by David Charter of the Times is a good read. He did his fair share of late-night summits and it’s stuffed with interesting numbers. If you want to poke the figures around yourself, they’re on the commission website here. Keep a Belgian beer on standby.
Lies, damned lies and statistics? And then some. One thing to think about at all times: the UK net contribution to the EU budget is less than 0.5 per cent of British GDP. Other things: The figures involved are very volatile (check out page 14 of this treasury report). And money that goes from the EU to non-government organizations – like scientific research – isn’t in the main figures. Of course there’s the rebate, on top of all of that. Oh, and pound-euro currency fluctuation.
*glug glug glug* Mmmmm, Chouffe. Alright. The UK’s annual net contribution to the EU in 2013, according to Mr Charter’s book and Fullfact, basically works out somewhere around £8.6bn. Mr. Dixon reckons it’s very slightly lower at £8.3bn – or around half a per cent of our GDP.
Mmmmhmmm. The EU Commission’s office in the UK puts the Operating Budgetary Balance – the gross sum the UK puts into the EU budget, minus the money that flows back to the UK, whether via government bodies or directly to beneficiaries – at £6.7bn. They also point out that on a per capita basis, we contribute less than Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Belgium.
Still sounds like a lot… Well, the Confederation of British Industry – hardly a fluffy bunch of Bruges graduates – suggests the direct net economic benefits of membership to the UK are between £62bn and £78bn every year.
What’s Colin Farrell got to do with it? Not In Bruges. It’s handy Brussels shorthand for the College of Europe, the Bruges-based institute where graduates go to study the EU and forge the power couples of tomorrow: Helle Thorning-Schmidt, the Danish PM who took that selfie with Barack Obama, met her husband – Neil Kinnock’s son – there. Other alumni include Finnish PM and triathlon machine Alex Stubb… and Nick Clegg.
Sounds fancy. One degree from Oxford is enough. What are some things David Cameron could ask for in this renegotiation? He said he’d talk about migration? Free movement of people is of one of the four pillars of the single market. So asking to remove it is like saying you want to join the meat pie appreciation club, but you’re vegetarian and want appropriate catering.
But I’ve got a senstitive stomach! Not everyone has: according to these figures from Hansard, there are 2.2 million Brits living in other EU countries, which more or less balances the 2.4 million EU citizens living the UK. The Brits mainly went to Spain and Ireland, while the two biggest groups coming here are Polish and Irish.
Happy St Patrick’s Day! Dziękuję. According to the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory, less than 5 per cent of EU migrants are claiming jobseekers allowance, while less than 10 per cent are claiming other DWP working age benefits.
But this guy down the pub said… The commission asked the UK for years to provide figures, rather than anecdotes, on EU migrants claiming benefits – and it didn’t. The UK can change welfare rules if it wants, and of course they vary between the different EU member states. Likewise, EU rules allow countries to put temporary brakes on migration – the UK didn’t in the early 2000s, while others did, and more people came than forecast. So maybe that flexibility could be increased.
What does the EU say? Separately, the European Commission is working on a new package of rules this year, which would enable countries to tackle abuse by better coordination of national social security systems. Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said of course he wants the UK to stay in, but that freedom of movement for workers is non-negociable. “There are red lines… You can’t change the treaty.”
OMG Treaties! What does Merkel think, everyone knows Ange is the real boss? In fact, Germany has faced the same issue: last year, an ECJ Advocate-General said Germany could refuse to pay unemployment benefits to an EU migrant who hadn’t tried to find work. And anyone who’s been to Mallorca will have noticed there are even more German than Brits living there. Just don’t test the limits of free movement in the bar queues on Paseo Maritimo.
I’m detecting a theme. Yes. Another one is we’re annoying the hell out of people by not actually saying what we want. German Deputy Foreign Minister Michael Roth told Bloomberg: “We would welcome it if difficulties with the EU were to be identified concretely – and it was made clear what the UK’s expectations of the EU are.”
It’s all good, David Cameron’s on BuzzFeed! It’s a great time to be easily bored. Bet he cleared it up. He took a question on the EU renegotiation. The very last one. From the audience, after he’d discussed Aston Villa.
Did he talk about treaties? He did. “If you get me, you get a renegotiation and a referendum,” he told the comedy genius listicle factory-slash-politics powerhouse. “We never wanted the ever-closer union that was written into the treaty, and I want it written out of our part of the Treaty.”
The treaties that everyone says it would be a complete nightmare to renegotiate? Coming soon: “Faces of 27 European leaders who can’t even with Dave right now.”
(*An Irish bar within sprinting distance of Justus Lipsius Building, where EU summits are held.)
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