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Two years ago I made a bet with Patrick O’Flynn (Ukip’s comms director, and former Daily Express political editor) that the Lib Dems would take more votes than Ukip at the 2015 general election. Messrs Ford and Goodwin, the authors of the recently published Revolt on the Right charting and explaining the rise of Ukip, published a soothing piece on Lib Dem Voice earlier today, to explain why Ukip offers little threat to the Lib Dems in 2015, and why my £20 is probably safe.
“There are relatively few Ukip-friendly Liberal Democrat held seats”, they opine, “as the two parties tend to appeal to very different demographic groups”. And indeed their data shows that the most endangered Lib Dem-held seat ranks a lowly 19th on the Ukip hit list. The next is an even more distant 62nd.