Moving towards the final year of this parliament, we have aggregated the results of our monthly Political Monitor polls from 2013 to evaluate how things have changed for each of the three main parties since May 2010.
We have used our data to compare the current voting intentions of the British public with the way they say they voted in 2010. In order to get a more accurate picture of how these intentions will be realised, we have focused on people who are certain to vote (as we do in our regular voting intention figures). For the purposes of this analysis, those who say they are not certain to vote are treated separately from those who are certain, even if they tell us which party they would vote for if they did vote.
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