As parties scramble to pick up first time voters, they would do well to take note of the views of the younger generation. Polls show that while the majority of the population overall favour scrapping Trident, this sentiment is strongest in the 18 to 24 age group — at 68 per cent. In fact, polls have indicated strong anti-Trident feeling across the political spectrum.
In terms of voting intentions,according to a ComRes/Independent poll in September 2009, 61 per cent of those planning to vote Labour support scrapping Trident, 63 per cent of those planning to vote Liberal Democrat, and most interestingly perhaps, 48 per cent of potential Conservative supporters, coming in 1 per cent higher than those wanting to keep Trident. Not surprisingly, scrapping Trident can be seen as a vote winner, not a vote loser.
This may be borne out by last night’s leaders’ debate, where Nick Clegg spoke out strongly against wasting public money on a Cold War nuclear weapons system. Brown and Cameron made their support for Trident very clear. All viewer polls since then show that Nick Clegg was overwhelmingly the most popular candidate.
It may not be specifically because he opposed Trident, but it certainly hasn’t damaged his ratings. This is something that Labour in particular needs to be aware of. Some of those in the party leadership may still believe the old myth that Labour’s anti-nuclear policies in 1983 led to its electoral defeat. In fact, the Tories polled less than at the previous election, but won out because the newly-founded SDP split the anti-Tory vote.
Be that as it may, there is no doubt that much of the rank and file of the Labour party oppose the leadership’s pro-nuclear position. Now it appears that many current Labour candidates are openly breaking with the party’s backing for Trident replacement.
CND has been conducting a survey of parliamentary candidates’ views on Trident replacement. So far, the responses from Labour candidates — many of them standing for the first time and in winnable seats — are over 2 to 1 against replacing Trident.
Do candidates normally go against party policy in election surveys? I don’t know the answer to that, but if the party leadership can’t win their candidates to the policy, doesn’t have the support of large numbers of party members, and is out of touch with public opinion, then maybe they really should have a rethink.
The minimum we should expect from all parties is that Trident should be included in the Strategic Defence Review. There can be no sacred cows, particularly not ones dating back to the Cold War.
Kate Hudson is Chair of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
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