Europe’s moment of reckoning has arrived. Any last hope that Donald Trump did not mean what he has repeatedly said about wanting to end the war in Ukraine – and his disregard for European security – has been dispelled.
Mr Trump’s “lengthy and highly productive” phone call with Vladimir Putin on 12 February brought the almost three-year effort by Western allies to isolate the Russian leader to an end. On the same day, the new US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, declared at a summit in Brussels that it was “unrealistic” for Ukraine to expect to return to its pre-2014 borders, from before Russia annexed Crimea and instigated the conflict in eastern Ukraine. He dismissed the prospect of Nato membership for Ukraine and said that any security guarantees needed to end the conflict would have to come from Europe.
On 14 February, the US vice-president, JD Vance, addressed the Munich Security Conference, where European officials were anxiously gathered to hear details of the Trump administration’s plans for Ukraine and the continent’s security. Instead, they were berated on the supposed “threat from within” as Mr Vance insisted that the real danger was not the major land war raging in Europe, or the shadow war that Russia has already unleashed with its campaign of sabotage, arson attacks and attempted assassinations, but what he views as efforts to undermine free speech and an unwillingness by European leaders to embrace the far right. Mr Vance made a point of meeting Alice Weidel, the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party – a significant intervention, as Annette Dittert writes, ahead of the German federal election on 23 February.
Beyond the imminent betrayal of Ukraine, it is clear the long-feared collapse of the transatlantic alliance is under way. Regardless of whether Mr Trump fulfils his past threats to pull out of Nato, it is time for European leaders to assume responsibility for their own security.
Europe must contend with a US that seems poised not only to renegotiate the continent’s post-Cold War security architecture but that threatens the territorial integrity of EU member states. Mr Trump has stated his ambition to take control of Greenland and transform Nato member Canada into the 51st US state. “Europe’s security is at a turning point,” remarked the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, as she arrived for emergency talks at the Elysée Palace in Paris on 17 February.
Keir Starmer’s response has been commendable in its clarity. Declaring this a “once-in-a-generation moment for our national security”, he has said the UK is “ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary”. Yet, as Lawrence Freedman argues, without significant American involvement, the resources needed for a credible peacekeeping force in Ukraine – let alone defend Europe – would be considerable.
After decades of underinvestment, the UK’s armed forces have been hollowed out. “Our military is so run-down at the present moment, numerically and as far as capability and equipment is concerned,” the former British Army head Richard Dannatt told the BBC on 15 February. Any attempt to deploy troops effectively in Ukraine, he said, could “potentially be quite embarrassing”. George Robertson’s long-awaited Strategic Defence Review is certain to reach a similar conclusion. The government’s defence spending commitment of 2.5 per cent of GDP will have to be met sooner than planned, regardless of the political battles Mr Starmer may face within his party.
At the emergency summit chaired by Emmanuel Macron on 17 February, there was little agreement on how to proceed. In contrast with France and the UK, Germany and Poland were reluctant to commit troops to secure Ukraine. But there was a general recognition among European leaders that their current defence capabilities are not sufficient. Mr Starmer insisted on the importance of a “US backstop”.
At Munich, the closing words were spoken by the conference’s outgoing chairman, Christoph Heusgen. “We have to fear that our common value base is not that common any more,” he said. With Russia emboldened and the US seemingly prepared to abandon its long-term allies, the UK and Europe must now decide what those values are, and whether they are prepared to fight for them. The continent’s security depends on it.
[See also: Europe’s emergency is Keir Starmer’s salvation]
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This article appears in the 19 Feb 2025 issue of the New Statesman, Europe Alone