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  1. The New Statesman View
15 January 2025

The strange death of the centre right

Moderate conservatives have allowed themselves to be marginalised by their populist rivals.

By New Statesman

Before Labour entered power, shadow cabinet ministers spoke of the prospect of a “progressive moment”. The hope was that Keir Starmer and other centre-left leaders would unite in a quasi-reenactment of the late 1990s.

That dream died on 6 November 2024 when Donald Trump comfortably defeated Kamala Harris. But it is not only Mr Trump’s victory that is evocative of a reactionary moment. Germany’s Olaf Scholz – a close ally of Mr Starmer – lost a vote of confidence last year and will likely be defeated by the Christian Democrats in next month’s general election. The Social Democrats are not only polling behind their traditional rival but also the far-right AfD.

In Canada Justin Trudeau, afflicted by record unpopularity, has resigned as prime minister after nine years. Though long anticipated, the Liberal leader’s departure was hastened by Mr Trump’s victory (the pair have a fraught relationship). Mr Trudeau is likely to be succeeded by the Conservative Pierre Poilievre, who combines free-market economics with populist stances on crime and immigration.

Finally, in Australia, Labor leader Anthony Albanese – who formed a loose quartet with Mr Starmer, Mr Scholz and Joe Biden – is in danger of losing office after a single term. His party trails that of Peter Dutton, a member of the National Right faction of the Liberals.

At first sight this resembles a traditional story of centre-left decline (or “Pasokification” as it became known after Greece’s enfeebled Pasok). Following a brief interlude of electoral success, social democrats and liberals are once more struggling. Among the G7 leaders, Mr Starmer and France’s Emmanuel Macron may soon be the only progressives left standing.

But there is another striking trend: the decline of the centre right. In February 2023, in a New Statesman cover story, Jeremy Cliffe labelled this phenomenon “Pécressification” after Valérie Pécresse, the French Republican leader who was humiliated in the 2022 presidential election (finishing fifth with 4.8 per cent of the vote).

In the two years since, Pécressification has only accelerated. Republican moderates have been vanquished by Mr Trump and his Maga faction. The far-right Marine Le Pen leads polling for the next French presidential election. Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy have triumphed over the traditional centre right – making her perhaps Europe’s most popular leader.

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The UK is far from immune to these trends. In last year’s Conservative leadership election, the party’s moderate One Nation grouping lacked a candidate in the final round. Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick both offered versions of the right-wing populism spreading across the West.

But Ms Badenoch lacks a monopoly on this position. Nigel Farage’s Reform is also seeking to harness the energy of the radical right – with increasing success. A YouGov poll published on 13 January put Reform on 25 per cent of the vote, with the Tories trailing on 22 per cent.

For Ms Badenoch, this shows the perils of seeking to outflank Mr Farage from the right. As election results across the West have demonstrated, voters tend to prefer the real thing. When the Conservative leader recently assailed Labour’s record on immigration at Prime Minister’s Questions, she merely invited scrutiny of her own party (net migration reached a record high of 906,000 under the Rishi Sunak’s government).

Rather than relentlessly wooing the right, Ms Badenoch should acknowledge the moderates who abandoned the Conservatives at the last election. Though the Liberal Democrats won 72 seats in that contest – mostly in the Tories’ traditional heartlands – Ms Badenoch has scarcely acknowledged their existence. Like Jeremy Corbyn, the Tory leader appears more interested in being proved right than in winning votes – a recipe for defeat.

Reform’s rise is a threat to Labour; the party finished second in 89 of the seats won by Mr Starmer. In an attempt to broaden its appeal, it has backed policies including the renationalisation of Thames Water and the protection of domestic steel. An unpopular government presiding over a stagnant economy is an attractive opponent for the insurgent right.

But in the short term, it is the Conservatives who have the most to fear from Reform. Unless they reaffirm their distinct identity, the Tories risk condemning their party to irrelevance.

[See also: The curse of the Oxbridge reject]

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This article appears in the 15 Jan 2025 issue of the New Statesman, The Disruptors