The nationalist international

In office, the Republicans’ main opponent could be economic reality. Tariffs, combined with tax cuts, threaten to stoke inflation.

By New Statesman

In 2018, the American statesman Henry Kissinger observed that Donald Trump “may be one of those figures in history who appears from time to time, to mark the end of an era and to force it to give up its old pretences”.

Two years later, Mr Trump was defeated in the US presidential election by Joe Biden. But this proved to be a mere interregnum. Even out of office, Mr Trump continued to shape American politics as trade protectionism and confrontation with China became part of the new consensus. In office again, he could prove to be the most pivotal US president since Franklin D Roosevelt. With Republican control of Congress and a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, Mr Trump will enjoy untrammelled power. The question is how he will use it.

For Europe, Mr Trump’s “America First” policy means a new age of insecurity. In 2018, he threatened to withdraw the US from Nato if European states did not meet their defence spending commitments. More recently, he told a rally in South Carolina that he would “encourage” Russia to attack any member that fell short.

Yet as Wolfgang Münchau writes, the EU failed to prepare for a second Trump presidency, instead treating him as an “aberration” (eight European countries will fail to spend at least 2 per cent of GDP on defence this year). Neither France nor Germany are capable of providing the political leadership the continent needs. Emmanuel Macron, who once boasted of pursuing “strategic autonomy”, has been weakened by his party’s electoral defeat. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has endured the collapse of his coalition government and recession.

But Mr Trump will force Europe to become more self-sufficient. For decades, the West benefited from a “peace dividend”: the cuts in defence spending that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. But that era is definitively over. Europe faces a revanchist Russia, an expansionist China and an increasingly isolationist US.

Mr Trump has stated that it his intention to settle the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of assuming power. Deluded that may be, but the signal is clear: the US will not continue indefinitely to support Volodymyr Zelensky’s resistance. Should Russia retain territorial gains in Ukraine, it may retreat. But Europe must be ready for the possibility that Mr Putin will test Nato’s commitment to collective defence before too long.

As Katie Stallard writes, the outlook for Taiwan remains ominous. Mr Trump has accused the self-governing territory of stealing America’s semiconductor manufacturing industry and suggested that it is too far away to defend. China’s Xi Jinping, who has declared that unification with Taiwan is “inevitable”, may well seek to take advantage.

Having described “tariff” as the “most beautiful word in the dictionary” on Joe Rogan’s podcast, Mr Trump also threatens a global trade war. He has pledged to impose a blanket tariff of 20 per cent on foreign goods, including from the UK, and one of at least 60 per cent on Chinese goods.

Yet in office, the Republicans’ greatest opponent could prove to be economic reality. Tariffs, combined with tax cuts worth trillions of dollars, threaten to stoke a new wave of inflation. The US national debt stands at $35trn (120 per cent of GDP) threatening the prospect of a future financial crisis. The tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has become one of Mr Trump’s consiglieri, has warned: “You need to be careful with tariffs, otherwise you shock the system and it breaks.” Whether Mr Trump heeds such warnings will shape his presidency.

But for now, he leads an insurgent Nationalist International. As John Gray says, “Parties of the right and ultra-right are gaining in power and influence nearly everywhere.” The Alternative for Germany is polling second ahead of next year’s general election, Marine Le Pen or her protégé Jordan Bardella may win the French presidency in 2027, and Giorgia Meloni has proved an unusually popular Italian prime minister.

In her unapologetic concession speech, Kamala Harris declared: “Sometimes the fight takes a while. That doesn’t mean we won’t win.”

But if liberals such as Ms Harris are ever to recover in the United States, they must ask why they keep losing to those like Donald Trump, as well as bracing themselves for the turbulent new world in which they operate.

[See also: The great American rupture]