The great American rupture

Kamala Harris’s doomed campaign failed to deter voters from the promise of “America First”.

Photo by Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Four years ago, Donald Trump’s political career appeared to be over. He lost the US presidential election to Joe Biden and responded by seeking to thwart the peaceful transfer of power. His supporters stormed the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 in one of the darkest days in the republic’s history. As he was charged with “incitement of insurrection”, Mr Trump became the first president to be impeached twice. This, it was said, was his political death.

And yet, almost a decade after his first victory, Mr Trump has been reborn. He did not merely defeat the Democrats’ Kamala Harris – he did so comfortably.

Such an outcome was deemed impossible by liberal commentators such as the former Conservative Party cabinet minister Rory Stewart. Ms Harris, it was said, would be propelled to victory by the Biden administration’s economic record and voters’ outrage over abortion bans.

But this misread the political times. Though the US economy’s performance was internationally impressive it was not felt by ordinary Americans whose living standards were eroded by inflation. The rise in the illegal migrant population to 11 million troubled Democrats as well as Republicans. And far from relying on his base, Mr Trump expanded his appeal – among African American and Latino voters.

Ms Harris’s selection as the Democratic nominee in July briefly allowed liberals to take a holiday from reality. She enraptured party activists who believed that she would succeed where Hillary Clinton failed in 2016 and become the first female president.

But the electoral task that confronted her was always a daunting one. As our international editor Megan Gibson wrote on 23 October, her defeat was inevitable from the moment she was selected. The 81-year-old Mr Biden’s presidential debate performance combined tragedy with farce. Having long tolerated his mental decline, the Democrats lay exposed.

If any candidate could defy these odds it was not Ms Harris. As the vice-president she was irrevocably tied to the Democrats’ record. Her vacuous campaign offered nothing to disillusioned voters. Ms Harris’s vow to curb illegal immigration rang hollow after it reached record levels under Mr Biden. Though she raised $1bn in donations, this merely confirmed her as the candidate of the wealthy elite in the eyes of working-class voters. Far from deepening Mr Biden’s tentative populism, Ms Harris diluted his progressive tax plans. She was the establishment candidate in an anti-establishment era.

For the US and the world, Mr Trump’s second term promises a rupture with the past. His “America First” policy could see his country relinquish its post-1945 international role. Europe, which Mr Trump has long denounced for its refusal to match US defence spending, must now embrace self-reliance. Ukraine may be forced to negotiate with Vladimir Putin’s Russia and abandon any hope of recapturing lost territory.

If he is true to his campaign rhetoric, Mr Trump risks igniting a global trade war. He has pledged to impose a universal tariff of 20 per cent on foreign goods, including from the UK, and one of 60 per cent on Chinese goods. The world is poised to enter a new era of economic protectionism.

During his first term as president Mr Trump was constrained by Republican grandees and a fractured party. But now the GOP has been remade in his image. Emboldened by the size of his victory, Mr Trump will shape the US state to his personal advantage. His admiration for tyrants such as Putin and China’s Xi Jinping is a warning to American democracy.

Progressives are rightly repulsed by Mr Trump – his casual racism, sexism and overweening narcissism. But far from seizing power by force, as they feared, he has defeated them in a peaceful, democratic election. Assailed as a disgrace to America, he has shown he is better attuned to its strange rhythms than almost anyone else.

This is not the first time liberals have been mugged by reality: Mrs Clinton’s defeat, the 2016 Brexit vote, Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019. When voters feel abandoned, they will find vehicles for their rage – however ramshackle they appear. Until progressives learn this lesson, more such humblings will follow.

[See also: The revenge of Donald Trump]