Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign has been a disappointment. When she became the candidate by accident in July, Democratic activists hoped she would defy Donald Trump and inspire the American electorate. Attendees at the party’s convention in Chicago in August assumed voters would see what they saw: an inspiring, vibrant, optimistic leader who would champion the working class and put country before party. Many commentators hailed Ms Harris as Barack Obama’s successor. Swept away by relief that Joe Biden was no longer the candidate, they thought Ms Harris would defeat Trump and lead a new political era.
However, with the election just days away, the polls remain stubbornly tight. While Ms Harris initially gained a few points, she has now lost momentum. Our polling model gives her a 53 per cent chance of victory to Trump’s 47 per cent. Statistical predictions about the result on 5 November remain within the margin of error. Either candidate could win.
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