In his first speech as Prime Minister on 5 July, Keir Starmer spoke of a “weariness in the heart of [the] nation”. There had, he went on, been “a draining away of the hope, the spirit, the belief in a better future”.
Few could argue with Mr Starmer’s diagnosis. The Conservatives’ worst-ever general election defeat revealed the restive public mood. But anger was fused with apathy. Labour’s victory – a “loveless landslide” some called it – rested on the lowest vote share of any winning party since 1832 (33.7 per cent). Labour is hegemonic in parliament, but its status in the country is more akin to that of an unpopular midterm government (one recent poll by More in Common put support at 29 per cent).
The challenge confronting Mr Starmer is to renew faith in politics as a force for good. Since entering power, Labour has made progress. It has begun to reform England’s antiquated planning laws, announced the launch of a National Wealth Fund and the publicly owned GB Energy, “reset” relations with Europe and the US and embarked on an ambitious programme of workers’ rights (more of which in future issues). The active state has returned.
But as Andrew Marr writes on page 24, and we have said before, Labour is struggling to tell a story about itself and the country it leads. In recent weeks, talk of the “£22bn black hole” left by the Conservatives has dominated government messaging. This is arid politics.
The model here is the strategy deployed by David Cameron and George Osborne who, after winning the 2010 general election, successfully blamed the 2008 financial crisis on “overspending” by Gordon Brown’s government.
But there are numerous reasons why Labour must not become fixated with this narrative. Voting for change was an act of hope by the British public. “Things can only get better” some quipped to each other in reference to the D:Ream song that soundtracked Labour’s 1997 campaign. In declaring that “things will get worse before they get better”, Mr Starmer risks appearing powerless to deliver the changes he promised. The message jarred with his insistence that Labour has achieved “more in seven weeks than the last government did in seven years”.
Mr Starmer and the Chancellor Rachel Reeves are seeking to learn from the Conservatives’ successive election victories. But they should not overstate Mr Osborne’s political genius. The Tories’ 2015 election victory was aided by both the collapse of the Liberal Democrats in England as well as the collapse of Labour in Scotland following the 2014 independence referendum. Brexit – a symptom of the political discontent that endures today – followed just a year later.
Labour’s challenge is not only one of style but of substance. The decision to means-test the winter fuel allowance for pensioners was taken by Ms Reeves as evidence of her fiscal discipline, but it is bad policy and bad politics. In his recent rose garden speech, Mr Starmer argued that “the broadest shoulders should bear the heavier burden”, yet Labour is removing the benefit from all but the poorest pensioners (those on the state pension or incomes of around £11,300). In doing so, it has exposed vulnerable and elderly people to anxiety and hardship this winter (the benefit is worth £300 to the over-80s).
Economic growth is supposedly Labour’s main mission – and with good reason. Yet we have heard strikingly little about how this will be achieved since the election. Instead, Ms Reeves’ narrative has been dominated by talk of the “black hole” left by the Conservatives.
The challenge is obvious: the Chancellor must use the Budget on 30 October as a “reset moment”. As well as imposing necessary tax rises to fund public services and reduce government borrowing, Ms Reeves must show that she has a plan to grow the economy. Higher growth depends on higher investment yet, at present, public investment under Labour is projected to fall from 2.4 per cent of GDP in 2024-25 to 1.7 per cent in 2029-30.
Keir Starmer, meanwhile, should use his conference speech to define his government’s ultimate purpose and then tell a more convincing story about it. At present, he is a professed storyteller in search of a story. A disillusioned public voted for change on 4 July, in an election in which Nigel Farage’s Reform finished second in 98 constituencies and the SNP was routed. If Labour appears incapable of delivering the change it claims to represent, voters will not hesitate to look elsewhere.
[See also: Rachel Reeves’ great gamble]
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This article appears in the 18 Sep 2024 issue of the New Statesman, What’s the story?