For the past decade, liberals have celebrated Germany as a bulwark against populism. During the Brexit and Trump years, Angela Merkel was hailed as the “leader of the free world”. Her government thwarted the UK’s demands for control over the free movement of people and unilaterally opened Germany’s borders to millions of refugees from Syria. In an era of atavistic nationalism, Ms Merkel’s country was revered for learning from its past.
But it is now Germany that has become a case study in radicalisation. On 1 September, for the first time since 1945, a far-right party triumphed in a regional election. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won 32.8 per cent of the vote in Thuringia and 30.6 per cent in Saxony (where it finished second). To the astonishment of the European establishment, it is now the leading political force in the country’s east.
Just as striking was the dismal performance of Germany’s ruling triumvirate. In Thuringia, the coalition partners – the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democrats – collectively won a mere 10.4 per cent; in Saxony they won 13.3 per cent. As well as being beaten by the AfD, they were eclipsed by Sahra Wagenknecht’s left-conservative alliance, which launched just eight months ago. The German political system – for so long dominated by the centre left and the centre right – is being upended.
The AfD lies well to the right of most of Europe’s insurgent parties. Earlier this year, politicians from the party met neo-Nazis to discuss a “master plan” for the mass deportation of asylum seekers and German citizens of foreign origin. Unlike France’s Marine Le Pen and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, the AfD also opposes membership of the European Union and the single currency.
Yet its rise was both predictable and predicted. The international plaudits heaped on Germany have long masked deep domestic discontent. Ms Merkel’s reign was celebrated for its longevity – she held office for 16 years – but it created the conditions for today’s revolts. Her austere fiscal policies left Germany with outdated infrastructure and depressed living standards (particularly in the poorer east). Low-wage employment has proliferated as German industry struggles to adapt to a new era of crisis (it was the only G7 economy to shrink last year).
Most of all, Ms Merkel’s decision to open Germany’s borders to mass migration has proved a gift to the far right. Her successors are now scrambling to adapt. The Christian Democrat leader Friedrich Merz floated emergency border controls in the wake of a recent knife attack in Solingen (for which Islamic State claimed responsibility). The Social Democratic chancellor Olaf Scholz has declared that asylum seekers who arrive from other European countries will only be entitled to “bed, bread and soup”. Even as they refuse to govern with the AfD, the Germany mainstream is conceding that it has set the political agenda.
For Keir Starmer, Mr Scholz’s fate is a warning. The Social Democrats’ victory in the 2021 German election was hailed by some as a progressive moment. But just three years later, they lie in third place in national polls (behind both the Christian Democrats and the AfD). A volatile electorate is punishing a centre-left party that won power on a slim share of the vote (25.7 per cent). Will this be Labour’s fate?
Mr Starmer is, at least, alert to this danger. In his speech to the New Statesman’s summer party on 22 July, he warned that “nationalism and populism” could triumph “if we fail in our project of delivering change”. Events since – the summer riots and Germany’s far-right revolt – have only strengthened this analysis. The deindustrialised regions where Nigel Farage’s Reform performed well at the general election bear a notable resemblance to the AfD’s heartlands.
Since entering power, Labour has spent much time bemoaning its inheritance from the Conservatives. The aim is to ensure that its predecessors receive the blame for the tax rises and spending cuts to follow in this autumn’s Budget. But Mr Starmer must avoid appearing a prisoner of the past. Should Labour fall short, impatient voters will soon defect. For proof of that, the new government need only look to Germany.
[See also: Labour’s winter fuel revolt]
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