Israel and Hamas have reached agreement on a ceasefire with Qatar and Egypt serving as mediators, and the representative of President Joe Biden (Brett McGurk) and President-elect Donald Trump (Steve Witkoff) playing pivotal roles. The text has not been released yet Qatar’s Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, summarised the main provisions during a press conference yesterday (16 January). And it is not yet sewn up: under pressure from his far-right political allies, this morning Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the deal, and the Israeli cabinet has delayed a vote to endorse it. But perhaps this is indicative – even should the ceasefire hold, peace itself is a long way off.
For Qatar, the deal – which will take effect on 19 January – was another opportunity to demonstrate that it punches well above its weight. For Biden, it is a final foreign policy triumph. For Trump, who has warned that Hamas would have “hell to pay” if it failed to release all Israeli hostages, the agreement adds to the buzz surrounding his inauguration and vindicates the narrative he and his inner circle – including Witkoff, who claimed that Trump is “driving” the talks – have propagated, namely that the fear of Trump would force Hamas to sign a ceasefire deal, never mind that all hostages will not be freed by January 20, when he will be inaugurated.
This accord is virtually identical to the 6 May 2024 ceasefire agreement, which Hamas accepted. Netanyahu did not; he wanted a temporary ceasefire that could be extended to allow the return of as many hostages as possible, not a permanent one that would prevent the evisceration of Hamas, his declared objective. His confidence proved misplaced. Despite the IDF’s fearsome firepower, Hamas refused to surrender. Indeed, under the leadership of Yahya’s brother, Mohammed, it has replenished its ranks, undaunted by Israel’s relentless strikes and the crippling blows the IDF inflicted recently on Hamas’ ally Hezbollah.
At least 405 Israeli soldiers have been killed since Israel launched its invasion of Gaza, including five in recent days. Netanyahu may have come to realise the IDF was unable to eliminate Hamas and that continuing the war would only ensure the relentless protests in Israel demanding the return of the hostages would continue, along with growing public opposition to sacrifice of Israeli soldiers for an unattainable goal. As for Hamas, this agreement contains almost everything it has sought in previous negotiations – a permanent end to the war, the IDF’s complete withdrawal from Gaza and the release of numerous Palestinians from Israeli jails. It is therefore as significant a breakthrough for their movement as it is for Netanyahu.
The final phase of negotiations produced two surprises. First, though bipartisanship has been effectively dead since Trump’s previous presidential term and American politics has become polarised and poisonous to a degree unprecedented in living memory, Biden allowed Witkoff (read: Trump) to participate. This concession was not granted begrudgingly but because Biden believed that the next administration should have a say in crafting a deal whose consequences it will have to manage. Second, though Trump has styled himself as Israel’s greatest champion, Witkoff, according to Israeli press reports, ditched diplomatic niceties and essentially gave Netanyahu an ultimatum, telling him that he had to move toward a ceasefire. That Biden’s flexibility and Trump’s decisive strategising have colluded to make peace might surprise both men’s worst critics.
The deal will unfold in three stages (the details of the last two must still to be finalised through additional negotiations). During the first, which will last for 42 days, hostilities will be suspended. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will evacuate Gaza’s populated areas and redeploy to narrow buffer zones along the territory’s edges. But they will maintain a temporary presence along the Philadelphi corridor, a nine-mile-long, roughly 330-feet wide strip on the territory’s border with Egypt, as well as the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt. Displaced Palestinians – one million in all – will be allowed to return to their neighbourhoods, most of which have been damaged or destroyed, and humanitarian supplies will flow to Gaza in larger amounts: 500 trucks per day.
Hamas will release 33 of the 94 remaining hostages (not all are alive), with children, women, men 50 or older, and the ill and wounded receiving priority. Israel will reciprocate by freeing 30 Palestinian prisoners for every civilian hostage released by Hamas and 50 for each freed female soldier, including 100 prisoners sentenced to lifetime incarceration, plus women and children detained inside Gaza, many held incommunicado and without being charged. During the second stage, which will also span 42 days, Hamas will free all Israeli male hostages, whether civilians or soldiers, in exchange for Israel’s release of additional Palestinian prisoners. (In all, some 1,000 jailed Palestinians may be freed under the terms of the agreement.) In addition, the IDF will withdraw from all of Gaza, including the Philadelphi corridor and the Netzarim corridor, a four-mile-long road that bifurcates Gaza.
The ceasefire agreement, which Israel’s cabinet must approve, will enrage the country’s religious far-right and could even precipitate the implosion of Netanyahu’s governing coalition if Ben Gvir resigns, as he has threatened to, and persuades Smotrich to join him. Nachala and other groups from Israel’s religious far-right, supported by some ministers (including Ben-Gvir) and Knesset members, seek to build settlements in Gaza, and will denounce the deal as a betrayal and a humiliation. Netanyahu can still survive if Yair Lapid, the opposition leader who heads the centrist Yesh Atid party and has blessed the ceasefire agreement, makes good on his offer of support. But the far-right may still stick with Netanyahu for now rather than being cast into wilderness.
During his press conference, Qatar’s prime minister was repeatedly asked how the terms of the agreement would be enforced. His honest but vague answer was essentially that Israel and Hamas must demonstrate goodwill and that the three states serving as mediators would work tirelessly to urge compliance. The possibility that Netanyahu will resume his bid to destroy Hamas can’t be excluded, and Trump, having taken credit for the agreement, may join him in blaming Hamas for breaking the terms of the deal.
But even if the deal survives and war does not resume during the first 42 days, grave problems lie ahead, especially in phase three. One of the provisions, exchanging the bodies of dead Israeli hostages and slain Hamas fighters, should be easy – providing the fighting doesn’t resume. The same can’t be said about the creation of a governance structure for Gaza. Hamas has survived, but Israel insists that it cannot play any role in running post-war Gaza. That will be a tough knot to untangle. Plans for Gaza’s reconstruction are to be formulated starting 12 weeks after the signing of the ceasefire deal. Given the scale of destruction the cost will be colossal: removing the 42 million tons of rubble in Gaza alone will cost an estimated $700 million. Not only will Israel refuse to help foot the bill, having – together with Egypt – blockaded Gaza since 2007, it could control the entry of equipment and building materials.
The biggest post-ceasefire problem lies outside the scope of the agreement: achieving a political settlement that reconciles Israel’s requirements for security with Palestinians’ determination to attain a state of their own. The one-state solution – equal rights for Jews and Palestinians – has scant support among Israelis, even those on the political left. Yet by continuing to expel West Bank Palestinians from their land and appropriate it, Israel has all but killed the two-state alternative, which was on life support even before the Gaza war began: public support for it fell from 61 percent in 2012 to 25 percent over the course 2023. Until Israel’s occupation ends there will never be a durable peace, and this agreement may ultimately be likened to a bandage applied to a deep gash that soon starts gushing blood again.
[See also: Will Israel strike Iran’s nuclear programme?]