Just hours after attending the inauguration of Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, Hamas’s leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated.
Hamas released a statement early Wednesday morning denouncing the “Zionist raid on his residence”, and blaming Israel for Haniyeh’s death. Early reports suggest that he was killed by a rocket, though details are still emerging. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have so far declined to comment on the death.
While the details surrounding the strike remain unclear, it’s already apparent that Haniyeh’s death could upend whatever fragile stability remains in the region. As the head of Hamas’s political wing and its face abroad, Haniyeh has played an active role in negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza from his homebase in Doha. Haniyeh has been pushing for months to reach a ceasefire agreement – often clashing with Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas’s military wing, who opposes a ceasefire deal – and US officials had indicated in recent days that a deal was near. Haniyeh’s death could mean that any progress that had been made on a deal will be reversed. Turkey’s foreign ministry released a statement on Wednesday to that effect, condemning Haniyeh’s assassination, which it claimed was proof that Benjamin Netanyahu’s government “has no intention of achieving peace”.
(Yet some analysts and regional experts have speculated that with Haniyeh now dead, Netanyahu can claim a victory over Hamas. Peter Ricketts, the former diplomat and national security adviser, told the BBC that Israel now has the “political room to begin now to wind down the operation in Gaza”.)
Then there is the matter of how Iran will respond. Though Hamas is perhaps the least favoured of the regime’s proxy militias, Iranian leaders are clearly angry that such a strike took place in their capital. The country’s new president, Pezeshkian, has said that the regime will make Israel “regret” the strike and will “defend its territorial integrity, honour pride and dignity”. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said that Israel’s actions warrant “harsh punishment”.
Iran demonstrated its capacity for “harsh punishment” earlier this year when, in April, the regime attacked Israel with more than 300 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, some of which managed to pierce the country’s Iron Dome. That attack came just two weeks after a deadly strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria, which the regime blamed on Israel. The fact that both Pezeshkian and Khamenei have issued public statements regarding punishment could signal that Iran intends to launch a significant retaliation.
Haniyeh’s killing and the response from Iran is playing out against the backdrop of escalating fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hours before Haniyeh’s death, a strike in a suburb of Beirut reportedly killed four people and — possibly — Fouad Shukur, Hezbollah’s senior commander. (The Iranian-backed militia has said they are still searching for the Shukur amid the rubble.) Israel believed that Shukur was responsible for a rocket attack on the Golan Heights on 27 July, which killed 12 children and teenagers who were playing football.
Will Israel’s deadly strikes prove to be a deterrent against Iran and its proxies, easing the tension that has been steadily building in recent days? Or will they prove to be a miscalculation, a reckless escalation that tips the Middle East into a regional war?
[See also: Israel can prevent a regional war]
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