On 22 December, Kemi Badenoch will have reached a milestone. She will have exceeded the 49 days Liz Truss served as leader of the Conservative Party. Whatever the future holds, Badenoch can claim that she has not had the worst start or been the most short-lived of recent Tory leaders. Badenoch inherited a demoralised party that had suffered the worst election defeat in its history. It had won in 2019 by offering contradictory promises that it could not deliver to a broad coalition of supporters that could not be sustained.
Populist voters preferred the offer of Reform UK – uncontaminated by the experience of government – while pragmatists defected to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Tactical voting and the widespread desire to elect Anyone But The Tories turned 4 July into a rout. It also means that we now have a fragmented parliament in which the diminished official opposition has to compete for attention with the Liberal Democrats, Reform, and the Greens.
Of these groups, Reform is the most difficult for any Tory leader. One can be sceptical about predictions that Nigel Farage could be in Downing Street after the next general election, but there is no doubt that he is a very effective media operator. Donald Trump’s election victory has made the public even more interested in what Farage has to say. This leaves whoever is the leader of the Conservative Party fighting off challenges from both the centre and the left, as well as struggling to get their voice heard in a crowded field.
It was this latter point that gave Badenoch the advantage in the Tory leadership race. Her combative and outspoken manner and unusual background meant that she was able to (and continues to) attract attention. These qualities proved invaluable in the circumstances. Badenoch also had to try less hard than other candidates to win support on the right of the party, giving her the freedom to broaden the base of the party in all directions. Sensibly, she explicitly ruled out announcing detailed policies this early in the parliament.
Her personality, however, was also a cause for concern. Many of her parliamentary colleagues worried that she was not a team player, intolerant of dissent and prone to falling out with people she needs. A leader of the opposition has little to offer in terms of patronage but if they want to build a relatively strong frontbench team, they need to cajole and encourage their colleagues in the often thankless task of being a shadow minister. Was Badenoch capable of doing this?
Enough time has now elapsed to make some early assessments on whether Badenoch is meeting expectations.
The good news for her is that the Conservatives’ poll rating could be worse. By historic standards, polling in the mid-20s is very poor but such was the disaster in July there may be a sense of relief. This has more to do with the difficulties that the government has got itself into than any recovery in the Tories’ reputation. That some show a Conservative lead does keep them relevant. A leader of the opposition who has a lead in the polls would normally be in an impregnable position against any internal challenge.
The rest of the news, however, can be described as mixed. If Tories voted for Badenoch expecting her to be making the political weather, they will have been disappointed. Farage has maintained a much higher profile. To the extent that Badenoch has said anything particularly interesting, it has been on the subject of sandwiches.
This is a little weird but one should not get too excited about this. She has not committed any serious howlers, but nor has she landed any heavy blows on the government, or taken the chance to make a favourable first impression.
On her political strategy, the jury remains out on this because it is not yet clear what it is. (To be fair, the same could have been said about Keir Starmer at this stage of his leadership.) Badenoch was wise to eschew policy announcements in the leadership campaign but, in what appeared to be a rather panicked announcement, has now declared that she would pursue an immigration cap. Her focus on immigration, including at PMQs, looks like a gift to Farage.
Talking to Conservative MPs, the concerns about her handling of colleagues have not abated. She is described as “distant” and “not engaging”. “She turns up to vote at the last moment, rushes through with one of her friends and doesn’t speak to anyone else,” says one MP. Another says, “She can’t even bring herself to make eye contact with and say, ‘Hello’ to people she dislikes.” Her team of close advisers are viewed as not providing sufficient challenge to her.
These are problems – perhaps driven by shyness more than anything else – that can be overcome. There is no sign that a coup is imminent, but she should be wary. One look at the range of subjects beyond his brief on which Robert Jenrick posts on X suggests that the runner-up in the last Tory leadership race has not abandoned his ambitions.
Kemi Badenoch has had an underwhelming but not disastrous start as Tory leader. But, given her inheritance, underwhelming will not be good enough. Come the New Year, she will need to set out a clearer political strategy and engage better with her parliamentary colleagues. If not, she will have little to claim from her time as leader other than that she lasted longer than Liz Truss.
[See also: Why Kemi Badenoch keeps misfiring]
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