There is a hypothesis that I have set out before in these columns and now might be a good time to revisit it. The hypothesis is a simple one. Labour would fight the 2024 general election saying as little as possible about Brexit and its consequences but, having secured victory, the pressure would build for a more ambitious policy of moving closer to Europe. By the time we got to the next election in 2028 or 2029, I argued, Brexit would once again be a major issue.
I was reminded of this when the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, used his Mansion House speech last week to point out rather tentatively that “the changing trade relationship with the EU has weighed on the level of potential supply” and that “we must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations” with the EU while “while respecting the decision of the British people”.
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