Ursula von der Leyen is damaging EU unity

The European Commission president has let a personal rivalry sour the relationship between Germany and France.

Photo by Michal Cizek / AFP via Getty Images

On one level this is classic political intrigue, but it is also the story of the Franco-German relationship breaking. Ursula von der Leyen, the German president of the European Commission, has got rid of long-time rival Thierry Breton, the French industry commissioner of the EU. He quit on 16 September. In his resignation letter, he wrote that Von der Leyen had asked Emmanuel Macron to replace him. She threatened to demote Breton otherwise. After Breton’s resignation, Macron followed Von der Leyen’s order and nominated Stéphane Séjourné, the outgoing French foreign minister.

For Marine Le Pen, and her right-wing party National Rally, the story of French humiliation at the hand of a German kommissar is a gift. It appears to confirm everything she ever said about the EU – that it is run as a German racket. Jean Quatremer, the longest-serving of French media’s Brussels correspondents, said on X that he has never seen anything like this in his more than 40 years in Brussels.

Nor have I. There have been many Franco-German disagreements before. But never such disrespect. Brussels analysts went years without witnessing any tangible evidence of Franco-German cooperation, only to be surprised when it emerged in 2020 with Macron and Angela Merkel jointly proposing a recovery fund to help member states get through the Covid-19 pandemic. The relationship was mostly quiet, always lurking in the background. The leaders treated each other with respect even when they disagreed.

I recall a conversation with Wolfgang Schäuble, the late German finance minister under Merkel, criticising the fiscal policies of southern European countries but exempting France. The reason was entirely political. Anything else would have been considered poor diplomatic style.

That era of bilateral restraint is gone. Germany’s current finance minister, Christian Lindner, recently warned the European Central Bank not to bail out France should it ever have a financial crisis. This feels like he was actively trying to trigger a run on French bonds.

Von der Leyen’s manoeuvre is more of a power battle to see off an opponent. There is a back story to their rivalry. In April this year, Breton organised opposition inside the European Commission against Von der Leyen’s attempt to get one of her closest allies, the German MEP Markus Pieper, appointed to the job of EU envoy for small and medium-sized companies. Pieper said later that Breton boycotted his appointment.

When Germany’s Christian Democrat (CDU) party nominated Von der Leyen for president again in March, Breton wrote on X: “Despite her qualities, Ursula von der Leyen is voted out by her own party… The [European People’s Party] itself does not seem to believe in its candidate.”

Maybe the last straw was his tweet in August when he suggested that Elon Musk’s interview with Donald Trump could have violated the EU’s Digital Markets Act. Von der Leyen got the Commission to issue a formal retraction of the comment.

I feel about Von der Leyen and Breton the way Henry Kissinger felt about Iran and Iraq. Why can’t they both lose? I find them equally wrong. Together, they have been responsible for the most misguided policies in the EU’s 66-year history. Under their leadership the EU passed regulations, especially around artificial intelligence and with the Digital Markets Act, that keep the bloc trapped in the digital stone age. The EU’s fight against all things digital is starting to have macroeconomic effects. As Europe’s old industries can no longer compete against China, there are no new sectors for the EU to diversify into because of the Commission’s large regulatory barriers.

More potential conflicts lie ahead for France and Germany. If the CDU leader Friedrich Merz becomes German chancellor after next year’s election, as seems increasingly probable, his main European policy priority will be to undo the 2035 deadline on banning the sale of petrol and diesel cars, to reverse the tariffs on Chinese vehicles, and to push back EU emissions reduction targets. The car industry is facing a potential €15bn in fines as it may violate the 2025 emission targets. The Germans will do anything to keep their ailing car industry afloat. Unity of the EU is not their priority. Nor is the Franco-German relationship. I suspect Von der Leyen will support Merz.

France will resist this, along with Italy. This is the line of future conflict. Mario Draghi, the former Italian prime minister, spoke truth to power earlier this month when he called on the EU to overhaul its regulation and open up to 21st-century technologies. The EU’s recent laws are not only intrusive and burdensome, but also inconsistent and badly drafted.

I see the EU entering an age of secular decline, left behind by the US and China. It may be too much to ask of the EU to join the competition. But under Von der Leyen’s leadership the EU has regressed. Draghi’s report is more polite in tone than I am, but no less damning in its verdict. Von der Leyen defines the EU’s political priority as supporting Ukraine, which strikes me as misguided. The EU is not a military power and cannot deliver weapons. Nor does the EU have the power to raise taxes or issue debt. If it does not fix the economy, it will not be a place worth joining.

Breton and Von der Leyen’s battle was ultimately between two losers – one of them has gone, while the other will limp on for another five years without a strategy. There are no winners.