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15 January 2024

Why Trump will win

His rhetoric – and even his personality – continue to appeal to ordinary American voters.

By Adrian Pabst

As US primaries get under way this week, Donald Trump stands out not just because he leads his rivals for the Republican nomination by some 50 percentage points in the polls. It is his political positioning that sets him apart in the race, notably from his closest competitor Nikki Haley who represents the fusionism that was hegemonic in the GOP from Ronald Reagan to George W Bush – the combination of social conservatism with free-market fundamentalism and global power projection through foreign wars. 

The turmoil within the Republican Party did not start with Trump but with the fundamental failure to recognise that unfettered capitalism erodes family, community and the economic foundations of the military-industrial complex. Wall Street and Silicon Valley are on steroids while millions on Main Street die of opioids. Financial speculation and virtual tech have displaced productive capacity, with the world’s supposedly sole superpower struggling to provide sufficient ammunition to Ukraine and Israel. And it’s far from clear whether America could defend Taiwan if Beijing opted for a naval blockade.

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