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30 August 2023

History offers Ukraine slender hope for a decisive victory

The wars between Finland and Soviet Russia in the 1940s hold lessons on how peace might be achieved today.

By Wolfgang Münchau

On a recent visit to the north-eastern regions of Finland, I had occasion to reflect on the Winter War of 1939 and 1940 and what it tells us about the situation in Ukraine today. Russia invaded Finland in late November 1939 to protect Leningrad (today’s St Petersburg), which at the time was only 20 miles away from the Finnish border. The Soviets had asked Finland to move the border some 20 miles west, and attacked after Finland refused. The war lasted just over three months. The Finnish troops were no match for the Red Army, but their guerrilla tactics were surprisingly effective and curtailed Russia’s advance. The Russians suffered heavy casualties.

The Winter War ended in March 1940 with the Moscow Peace Treaty. Finland ceded 9 per cent of its territory – the most important of which was the eastern part of Karelia, a region to the east of Helsinki that stretched almost all the way to Leningrad. The Soviets took Lake Ladoga and the tract of land from there to the Gulf of Finland, as well as a region in the north-east of the country. Most Finns who lived in those territories were repatriated to Finland.

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