The budget aftermath is the usual time to unearth hidden nasty measures and expose the Chancellor of the day’s sleight of hand. But it should also be a moment to step back and consider whether the public are being well served in what they are being told about the fiscal future of the country over the next few years. It’s fair to say that things aren’t working as well as they might.
The current set-up is defined by jumpy fiscal forecasts produced by the independent Office of Budget Responsibility on the one hand and an inflexible fiscal rule selected by the Chancellor which states that a surplus must be achieved in 2019–2020 and thereafter (subject to growth surpassing 1 percent). Put these two things together and something has to give. That something, it turns out, is a sensible trajectory for the future path of public spending and tax revenues. As others have highlighted, all sorts of fiscal shenanigans are being contrived in order that HMT can report that it is still on course to reach a surplus in four years’ time.
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