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14 December 2022

What if inflation falls in the wrong way?

Bond markets have suggested US inflation could fall by the most since 2008 next year – which could be catastrophic for the UK.

By Emma Haslett

People with “lower inflation” on their Christmas lists might be about to get their wish. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published figures this morning (14 December) showing that the consumer prices index has dipped to 10.7 per cent, lower than the 10.9 per cent economists were expecting. Meanwhile in the US, the Federal Reserve announced yesterday that consumer price inflation slowed to 7.1 per cent in October.

However, an obscure financial market indicator has also just predicted that inflation in the US could be on the brink of a much sharper downward turn – and this might not be good news for the US and other economies.

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