There’s a remarkable poll in tomorrow’s Observer showing that Labour has cut the Conservatives’ lead to just 6 points. This is the Tories’ lowest poll lead for almost a year and puts us back in hung parliament territory.
The Ipsos-MORI poll shows the Conservatives’ support falling from 43 per cent last month to 37 per cent, with backing for Labour increasing by 5 points to 31 per cent.
According to UK Polling Report’s swing calculator, these figures would leave the Tories 38 seats short of an overall Commons majority and just two seats ahead of Labour:
Conservatives: 288 seats (+90)
Labour: 286 seats (-70)
Liberal Democrats: 45 seats (-17)
The fieldwork for the poll was done last weekend, shortly after Labour’s convincing victory in the Glasgow North-East by-election, which is likely to have boosted the party.
It’s dangerous to read too much into one poll, but these are clearly fantastic figures for Labour six months ahead of a general election.
It was remarkably naive and premature of the Guardian to suggest on Tuesday that Cameron was “closing the deal” with the electorate.
Labour will be justly cheered by this result and the Tories will be more than a little rattled. For the first time in months, the political momentum is with Gordon Brown. The next week should be interesting.
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