Last week, Lord Ashcroft’s latest batch of seat polls confirmed that the SNP could win more than 50 seats in May. Ever since he released his first round of Scottish polls last month, May2015 has predicted Scotland’s nationalists would win nearly every seat in Scotland.
When Ashcroft’s polls were released last week we were forecasting 56 seats for the party – a number picked up last week (if not credited) by the inimitable Mike Smithson, the Guardian, the Independent on Sunday, the Daily Record and the Scotsman.
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- Ochil and South Perthshire — 91% likely to vote SNP
- Dundee West — 100% Ashcroft poll: SNP +34
- Argyll and Bute (Lib Dem-held) — 95%
- Falkirk (Labour seat until whip withdrawn) — 100%
- Inverness Nairn — 100% Ashcroft: SNP +29
- Caithness Sutherland (Lib Dem) — 91%
- Ayshire North — 94%
- Dunbartonshire East (Lib Dem) — 63%
- Cumbernauld — 96% Ashcroft: SNP +18
- Gordon (Lib Dem) — 87% Ashcroft: SNP +17
- Fife North East (Lib Dem) — 93%
- Glasgow East — 82% Ashcroft: SNP +14
- Aberdeenshire West (Lib Dem) — 82% Ashcroft: SNP +14
- Aberdeen North — 48%
- Edinburgh East — 92%
- Livingston — 54%
- Edinburgh West (Lib Dem) — 61%
- Linlithgow and East Falkirk — 80%
- East Kilbride — 66%
- Kilmarnock — 97%
- Glasgow South — 87% Ashcroft: SNP +15
- Edinburgh South West — 70% Ashcroft: SNP +13
- Glasgow North — 79% Ashcroft: SNP +12
- Motherwell and Wishaw — 74% Ashcroft: SNP +11
- Glasgow Central — 75% Ashcroft: SNP +10
- Dunbartonshire West — 70% Ashcroft: SNP +9
- Aberdeen South — 47%
- Stirling — 72%
- Midlothian — 52%
- Lanark and Hamilton East — 53%
- Paisley and Renfrewshire North — 66%
- Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (Lib Dem) — 66% Ashcroft: SNP +11
- Inverclyde — 83%
- Airdrie and Shotts — 67% Ashcroft: SNP +8
- Glasgow North West — 44% Ashcroft: SNP +6
- Edinburgh North and Leith — 42% chance of voting SNP
- East Lothian — 35%
- Edinburgh South — 34%
- Ayrshire Central — 45%
- Dunfermline and West Fife — 6%
- Paisley and Renfrewshire South — 54% Ashcroft: SNP +8
- Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath — 46% Ashcroft: SNP +6
- Ross Skye (Lib Dem) — 34% Ashcroft: SNP +5
- Dumfries and Galloway — 13% Ashcroft: SNP +4
- Glasgow South West — 24% Ashcroft: SNP +3
- Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill – 29% Ashcroft: SNP +3
- Glenrothes — 61%
- Dumfriesshire (Tory) — 5% Ashcroft: tied
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