20 June 2019updated 07 Jun 2021 1:01pm

New Tory leader spared tough by-election fight with Lib Dems

TWICKENHAM, ENGLAND - MAY 23: Leader of the Liberal Democrats Vince Cable arrives at a polling station to vote on May 23, 2019 in Twickenham, United Kingdom. Polls are open for the European Parliament elections. Voters will choose 73 MEPs in 12 multi-member regional constituencies in the UK with results announced once all EU nations have voted. (Photo by Peter Summers/Getty Images)

The next Conservative leader will be spared the early test of a fierce by-election fight with the Liberal Democrats after voters in Brecon and Radnorshire opted not to recall their Tory MP.

Chris Davies, who won the historic Mid-Wales marginal from Vince Cable’s party in 2015, pleaded guilty to making a fraudulent expenses claim in March. He was fined £1,500 and ordered to complete 50 hours of unpaid work the following month.

The sentence automatically triggered the opening of a six-week recall petition in his constituency, which closed yesterday. It was signed by XXX voters — a total which fell short of the 10 per cent threshold required to trigger a by-election that would have offered the new Conservative leader their first serious electoral test.

Brecon and Radnorshire was held by the Liberal Democrats from 1997 until Davies’ 2015 victory. He increased his majority to 8,038 at the last general election.

The Liberal Democrats had been primed to fight a by-election for some time and Jane Dodds, the party’s Welsh leader, was selected as their candidate in ahead of Davies’ conviction in March.

Complicating the picture further for the Conservatives was the fact of Ukip’s relatively strong showing in 2015, when they won 8.3 per cent of the vote – a number that suggests the Brexit Party could well split the Conservative electorate.

The lack of a late July or early August by-election will give the new Tory leader valuable breathing space and deprive Cable’s successor – who will be elected on 23 July – precious media attention and momentum.

A contest would have offered an early indication of the next Tory leader’s ability to stem the tide of voters to both the Lib Dems and Brexit Party, and a defeat would have raised serious questions about the viability of any explicitly pro no-deal strategy.

Instead, the first test of the new government’s position is now unlikely to come until after Parliament’s summer recess – when May’s successor will attempt to pull off the feat she repeatedly failed to manage: passing their preferred Brexit outcome