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22 October 2018updated 08 Jul 2021 10:14am

Who’s likely to survive the second round of the Conservative leadership election?

By Stephen Bush

Who will make it through to the next stage of the Conservative leadership election? The second ballot of MPs is today, with 33 MPs or more needed to make it through to the next round. Boris Johnson is certain to make it, and so should Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove, provided they can avoid losing ground from the first ballot. But Dominic Raab, Rory Stewart and Sajid Javid all face an uphill battle to get there.

Passing the second ballot is vitally important for all the candidates because doing so means that they will bag a slot on tonight’s BBC television debate, where there is a slim possibility that one of them could transform their standing and the overall contest with a strong performance. And even if they can’t do that, the better they do today, the better placed they are to retain a cabinet post under Johnson.

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