Tom Brake had been on telly, where he’d accepted the BBC’s description of his party’s local elections showing last week as “patchy”. By contrast, his general election record as Liberal Democrat contestant in Carshalton and Wallington in suburban south-west London is one of unbroken success since he first won the seat in 1997. But every one of his five victories have been narrow. In his constituency office, a short walk from the enchanting Carshalton Ponds, Brake describes his retention of the constituency in 2015 as being “by the skin of my teeth”. He was the only Lib Dem MP to hold a seat in the capital that year. He anticipates “an even bigger challenge” this time.
At first glance, his luck looks ready to run out. Brake won by just 1,510 votes two years ago, taking 35 per cent of the total. The Tories took 32 per cent. Ukip and Labour tied for third, with 15 per cent each. If Carshalton’s Kippers are joining the Tory shoal in anything like the numbers of counterparts elsewhere, Brake will drown in the blue tide. You might think that in Remain City being a Remainer in the most pro-Remain party would help. But Carshalton and Wallington is in Sutton, one of just five London boroughs out of 32 that voted Leave. What’s more, the poorer north of the seat, where Brake has previously harvested part of what in simpler times was called the “natural Labour vote”, is where backing for Brexit was the highest in his patch last June.
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