The Conservative Party is third place in the polls right now. And the council elections in a month’s time threaten to upend Tory fortunes even further in their east coast heartlands: voters in Lincolnshire and Kent are looking to Reform, not the Conservatives. All of this muddies the waters for the British right as it looks ahead to the next general election (though it is not for some time): what party stands the best chance of kicking Labour out of power?
And all the chatter is focused on Reform right now. But there is something the Conservatives have that Nigel Farage’s engine lacks: the economy. The very issue that killed off Conservative rule – and all hope of Rishi Sunak securing a fifth term for the party – is now the issue keeping them above water. Brand Conservative still has currency when it comes to “running the economy”. Opinium has them with a three-point lead, while my model Britain Elects has the Conservative lead at just a decimal point ahead. In less than a year, Labour’s hard-won lead on the economy has been erased. The Conservatives (just about) have an edge.
And if we look to the chart below, More in Common reckons the Conservatives lead Reform by one point on voting intention, and by 3.5 points on the economy. Relative to the voting intention figures for Reform, meanwhile, the party underperforms on the economy by 11-12 points.
So we have to conclude that there is still brand strength behind the Conservatives, even if the party doesn’t quite match up with the national mood right now. Ipsos shows that voters still do not read the Conservatives as vectors of political change. But perhaps it is Kemi Badenoch herself weakening these figures.
There are two ways to look at this. The first, and more generous, is that Badenoch’s name recognition is so weak that she lacks the economic credibility her party writ large still possesses. And that Farage is so strong he trumps everyone. 23 per cent of voters don’t know what to think of Badenoch, and just 15 per cent say the same of Farage.
This brings us to the second, less forgiving, explanation. There is residual appreciation for the Tory brand that is not being extended to the Tory leader. It seems her failure so far to improve her public perception proves that, as a leader, she is only complicating the path back to power for the Conservatives. All of this is to say: the more the campaign becomes about personality the greater risk Badenoch poses to the party. This effect is only made worse by Farage’s looming presence.
For now, the Conservatives have credibility on the economy. The polls accordingly remain split – but lose that credibility and those 20-something per cent polling positions occupied by the Tories will quickly prove themselves to be less like the floor and more like the ceiling. That could be ruinous.
[See more: The decade that growth forgot]
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